Garuda Lions
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Switzerland Super League Β· Β·Matchday 13

FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano

Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Lugano

1 – 2 Predicted score Β· 10% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 1.13.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence β€” both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Bet on FC Lugano

Cornaredo, Lugano

FC ST. Gallen 35%
Draw 24%
FC Lugano 42%

Confidence: Low  Β·  blended with market odds

Chance FC Lugano wins
42%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
96%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
62%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 2
10% of simulated outcomes

FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC ST. GallenDrawFC Lugano
Model16.3%20.5%63.2%
Market41.1%24.6%34.3%
Final34.9%23.6%41.5%
Edge-6.2%-1.0%+7.2%

Confidence: Low Β· Edge = Final minus Market

Why FC Lugano

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 1.13.
  • Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FC Lugano below our published probability: +7.2 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 2.75, recorded β€” the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +14.2% per unit staked (our 41.5% Γ— 2.75 βˆ’ 1).

FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano match preview

FC St. Gallen faces FC Lugano in the Switzerland Super League with kickoff scheduled for November 8, 2026. The model assigns a 16% probability of victory for FC St. Gallen, while FC Lugano has a 65% chance of winning. The expected goals for FC St. Gallen is 1.26, compared to 2.55 for FC Lugano, indicating a potential advantage for the visitors. Recent form shows FC St. Gallen with three wins and three losses in their last six matches, while FC Lugano has been in strong form, winning all six of their recent games.

The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2, occurring at a 9% probability. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams are expected to score, with a 67% likelihood. Historically, in their last 10 encounters, FC St. Gallen has recorded 5 wins, while FC Lugano has secured 2 victories and 3 matches ended in draws.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC ST. Gallen ↓ / FC Lugano β†’ 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 9% 7% 7% 1 9% 10% 7% 7% 2 5% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 67%
No goals 4%

FC ST. Gallen and FC Lugano expected goals

FC ST. Gallen 1.13
FC Lugano 2.32

Total expected goals: 3.45

FC ST. Gallen and FC Lugano attack and defence ratings

FC ST. Gallen

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 0.91 -9%

FC Lugano

Attack 1.61 +61%
Defence 0.67 -33%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Switzerland Super League

Before and after this match

FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Lugano 41.5% 2.41 +7.2% 2.75
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 67.0% 1.49 β€” β€”
Both teams to score Yes 61.9% 1.62 β€” β€”
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.4% 1.31 β€” β€”
Handicap -1 FC Lugano win 41.8% 2.40 β€” β€”

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC ST. Gallen34.9%
Draw23.6%
FC Lugano41.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567.0%
Under 2.533.0%
Both teams to scoreYes61.9%
No38.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)58.5%
12 (either side)76.4%
X2 (draw or away)65.1%
Handicap -1FC Lugano win41.8%
Push (exactly one goal)21.5%
Loss36.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-29.7%
1-19.1%
0-28.5%
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FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano stats

FC ST. Gallen and FC Lugano recent form

newest first
FC ST. Gallen WLWWWL
FC Lugano WWWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC ST. Gallen and FC Lugano season so far

league record

FC ST. Gallen record

  • They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

FC Lugano record

  • They have won 11 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.

FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5FC ST. Gallen wins 3Draws 2FC Lugano wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-09-16FC LuganoFC ST. GallenSwitzerland Super League4-1
2026-05-10FC LuganoFC ST. GallenSwitzerland Super League1-2
2026-03-17FC ST. GallenFC LuganoSwitzerland Super League1-1
2025-11-26FC LuganoFC ST. GallenSwitzerland Super League1-3
2025-09-13FC ST. GallenFC LuganoSwitzerland Super League1-0
2025-04-13FC LuganoFC ST. GallenSuper League1-1
2025-02-05FC ST. GallenFC LuganoSuper League2-1
2024-09-01FC LuganoFC ST. GallenSuper League1-1
2024-05-04FC LuganoFC ST. GallenSuper League0-1
2024-03-09FC ST. GallenFC LuganoSuper League2-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 41.1%, draw 24.6%, away 34.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.26 3.82 2.74
Bet365 2.30 4.00 2.60
BetVictor 2.25 3.70 2.63
Betano 2.27 3.75 2.75
Betfair 2.30 3.80 2.75
Dafabet 2.32 3.90 2.75
Marathonbet 2.24 3.82 2.73
Pinnacle 2.34 3.89 2.75
SBO 2.21 3.37 2.50
William Hill 2.30 3.60 2.62
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.29 β–² +0.03
X 3.81 β–Ό -0.01
2 2.74 β–Ό -0.01

12 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 2 FC Lugano Predicted score 1 – 2 Low Bet Now
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