FC Thun
vs
FC Basel 1893
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Thun
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — FC Thun is the favourite, not a value bet.
FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893
| Probability | FC Thun | Draw | FC Basel 1893 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.7% | 22.0% | 37.3% |
| Market | 44.5% | 24.1% | 31.3% |
| Final | 43.6% | 23.6% | 32.8% |
| Edge | -1.0% | -0.5% | +1.5% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.3% per unit staked (our 43.6% × 2.15 − 1).
FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 match preview
FC Thun will face FC Basel 1893 in the Switzerland Super League on November 8, 2026. The probabilities indicate a 43% chance for a Thun victory, a 24% likelihood of a draw, and a 33% chance for Basel to win. The expected goals are quite close, with FC Thun at 2.04 and FC Basel 1893 at 2.05, suggesting a competitive match. Our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 2-1 in favor of FC Thun, with a 7% chance of occurring.
In terms of recent form, FC Thun has recorded one win in their last six matches, while FC Basel 1893 has two wins in their last six. The head-to-head record shows FC Thun winning twice and FC Basel winning three times in their last five encounters. Additionally, there is a high probability of over 2.5 goals at 78% and both teams scoring at 77%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.04
FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 attack and defence ratings
FC Thun
FC Basel 1893
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Thun | 43.6% | 2.29 | -1.0% | 2.15 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.7% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.3% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Thun | 43.6% |
| Draw | 23.6% | |
| FC Basel 1893 | 32.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 23.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.9% |
| No | 24.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Thun win | 23.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.5% | |
| Loss | 59.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 7.9% |
| 2-1 | 7.4% | |
| 2-2 | 7.3% |
FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 stats
FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 recent form
| FC Thun |
WWLLDL |
| FC Basel 1893 |
LDWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 season so far
FC Thun record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
FC Basel 1893 record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | FC Basel 1893 | FC Thun | Switzerland Super League | 4-2 |
| 2026-05-02 | FC Basel 1893 | FC Thun | Switzerland Super League | 3-1 |
| 2026-04-18 | FC Thun | FC Basel 1893 | Switzerland Super League | 3-1 |
| 2026-02-01 | FC Basel 1893 | FC Thun | Switzerland Super League | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-13 | FC Thun | FC Basel 1893 | Switzerland Super League | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.5%, draw 24.1%, away 31.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.10 | 3.86 | 2.99 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.90 | 2.88 |
| Betano | 2.10 | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.90 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.15 | 3.95 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.08 | 3.86 | 2.98 |
| Pinnacle | 2.13 | 3.97 | 3.07 |
| SBO | 2.08 | 3.42 | 2.66 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.70 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .