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Switzerland Super League · ·Matchday 13

FC Luzern vs BSC Young Boys

Garuda Lions Prediction: BSC Young Boys

1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 1.83.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — BSC Young Boys is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on BSC Young Boys

Stade de Suisse Wankdorf Bern, Bern

FC Luzern 29%
Draw 22%
BSC Young Boys 49%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance BSC Young Boys wins
49%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
98%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
78%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 2
7% of simulated outcomes

FC Luzern vs BSC Young Boys overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Luzern vs BSC Young Boys

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC LuzernDrawBSC Young Boys
Model26.0%19.5%54.5%
Market30.5%23.0%46.5%
Final29.4%22.1%48.5%
Edge-1.1%-0.9%+2.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why BSC Young Boys

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 1.83.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Best available price on the pick: 2.11, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.4% per unit staked (our 48.5% × 2.11 − 1).

FC Luzern vs BSC Young Boys match preview

FC Luzern faces BSC Young Boys in the Switzerland Super League, with the match set to kick off on November 7, 2026. According to our model, FC Luzern has a 27% probability of winning, while BSC Young Boys holds a 52% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring with a 7% likelihood. The expected goals for FC Luzern stand at 1.83, compared to BSC Young Boys' 2.62, indicating a potential advantage for the visitors.

Recent form shows FC Luzern with a record of D-L-W-L-W-L, while BSC Young Boys has performed better with L-W-W-W-W-D. In their last ten encounters, FC Luzern has secured only 1 win, with BSC Young Boys dominating with 7 victories and 2 draws. The model suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 82% and both teams scoring at 78%.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Luzern ↓ / BSC Young Boys → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 4% 4% 1 6% 7% 6% 8% 2 5% 7% 6% 7% 3 4% 4% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 94%
3+ goals 82%
No goals 2%

FC Luzern and BSC Young Boys expected goals

FC Luzern 1.83
BSC Young Boys 2.62

Total expected goals: 4.44

FC Luzern and BSC Young Boys attack and defence ratings

FC Luzern

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 1.00 +0%

BSC Young Boys

Attack 1.66 +66%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Switzerland Super League

Before and after this match

FC Luzern vs BSC Young Boys markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 BSC Young Boys 48.5% 2.06 +2.0% 2.11
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 82.0% 1.22 — —
Both teams to score Yes 78.3% 1.28 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 77.9% 1.28 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 45.5% 2.20 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Luzern29.4%
Draw22.1%
BSC Young Boys48.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.582.0%
Under 2.518.0%
Both teams to scoreYes78.3%
No21.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)51.5%
12 (either side)77.9%
X2 (draw or away)70.6%
Handicap -1BSC Young Boys win35.8%
Push (exactly one goal)18.7%
Loss45.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-27.4%
2-26.7%
1-36.4%
Compare prices for this pick

FC Luzern vs BSC Young Boys stats

FC Luzern and BSC Young Boys recent form

newest first
FC Luzern DLWLWL
BSC Young Boys LWWWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Luzern and BSC Young Boys season so far

league record

FC Luzern record

  • They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

BSC Young Boys record

  • They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

FC Luzern vs BSC Young Boys head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1FC Luzern wins 2Draws 7BSC Young Boys wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-09-05BSC Young BoysFC LuzernSwitzerland Super League3-3
2026-03-04FC LuzernBSC Young BoysSwitzerland Super League1-2
2025-12-14BSC Young BoysFC LuzernSwitzerland Super League2-0
2025-09-14FC LuzernBSC Young BoysSwitzerland Super League1-2
2025-05-15BSC Young BoysFC LuzernSuper League2-1
2025-04-13FC LuzernBSC Young BoysSuper League5-0
2024-11-23FC LuzernBSC Young BoysSuper League1-1
2024-10-19BSC Young BoysFC LuzernSuper League2-1
2024-04-14BSC Young BoysFC LuzernSuper League4-2
2023-11-11BSC Young BoysFC LuzernSuper League6-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Luzern vs BSC Young Boys odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 30.5%, draw 23.0%, away 46.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.14 4.10 1.97
Bet365 3.10 4.10 2.00
BetVictor 2.90 4.00 2.00
Betano 3.05 4.00 2.02
Betfair 2.90 4.00 2.05
Dafabet 3.05 4.20 2.07
Marathonbet 3.15 4.10 1.95
Pinnacle 3.09 4.25 2.11
SBO 2.89 3.82 2.00
William Hill 2.90 3.90 2.00
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.05 ▼ -0.57
X 4.05 ▼ -0.28
2 2.00 ▲ +0.23

12 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 2 BSC Young Boys Predicted score 1 – 2 Low Bet Now
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