TransINVEST Vilnius
vs
Kauno Žalgiris
Garuda Lions Prediction: TransINVEST Vilnius
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.16.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
TransINVEST Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris overview
Garuda Lions analysis: TransINVEST Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris
| Probability | TransINVEST Vilnius | Draw | Kauno Žalgiris |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.3% | 24.1% | 21.6% |
| Market | 40.5% | 25.6% | 33.9% |
| Final | 44.0% | 25.2% | 30.8% |
| Edge | +3.5% | -0.4% | -3.1% |
Why TransINVEST Vilnius
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices TransINVEST Vilnius below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.2% per unit staked (our 44.0% × 2.30 − 1).
TransINVEST Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris match preview
TransINVEST Vilnius hosts Kauno Žalgiris in an A Lyga matchup with kickoff set for November 8, 2026. According to our model, TransINVEST Vilnius has a 43% probability of winning, while Kauno Žalgiris stands at 32%, and a draw is at 25%. The expected goals for TransINVEST Vilnius is 1.93, compared to 1.16 for Kauno Žalgiris. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 10%.
Recent form shows TransINVEST Vilnius with a mixed record of L-W-D-W-W-L, while Kauno Žalgiris has L-W-D-L-W-L. Both teams are projected to score, with a 60% chance for both teams to find the net and for the match to see over 2.5 goals. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
TransINVEST Vilnius and Kauno Žalgiris expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.09
TransINVEST Vilnius and Kauno Žalgiris attack and defence ratings
TransINVEST Vilnius
Kauno Žalgiris
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
Before and after this match
TransINVEST Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 44.0% | 2.27 | +3.5% | 2.30 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.7% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.7% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.7% | 2.19 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 44.0% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Kauno Žalgiris | 30.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.7% |
| No | 40.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | TransINVEST Vilnius win | 32.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 45.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.5% |
TransINVEST Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris stats
TransINVEST Vilnius and Kauno Žalgiris recent form
| TransINVEST Vilnius |
LWDWWL |
| Kauno Žalgiris |
LWDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
TransINVEST Vilnius and Kauno Žalgiris season so far
TransINVEST Vilnius record
- They have won 16 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kauno Žalgiris record
- They have won 18 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 17 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
TransINVEST Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Kauno Žalgiris | TransINVEST Vilnius | A Lyga | 1-1 |
| 2026-06-20 | TransINVEST Vilnius | Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga | 1-2 |
| 2026-04-18 | Kauno Žalgiris | TransINVEST Vilnius | A Lyga | 1-2 |
| 2025-03-22 | TransINVEST Vilnius | Kauno Žalgiris | Friendlies Clubs | 0-1 |
| 2024-08-31 | TransINVEST Vilnius | Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga | 0-3 |
| 2024-06-26 | Kauno Žalgiris | TransINVEST Vilnius | A Lyga | 2-0 |
| 2024-05-02 | TransINVEST Vilnius | Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga | 3-2 |
| 2024-03-12 | Kauno Žalgiris | TransINVEST Vilnius | A Lyga | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
TransINVEST Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.5%, draw 25.6%, away 33.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.19 | 3.64 | 2.56 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.62 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.45 | 2.67 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.24 | 3.25 | 2.73 |
| Marathonbet | 2.19 | 3.64 | 2.56 |
| Pinnacle | 2.22 | 3.88 | 2.75 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .