Panevėžys
vs
Šiauliai
Garuda Lions Prediction: Panevėžys
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.59.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Panevėžys vs Šiauliai overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Panevėžys vs Šiauliai
| Probability | Panevėžys | Draw | Šiauliai |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.0% | 25.3% | 11.6% |
| Market | 54.8% | 23.9% | 21.3% |
| Final | 56.9% | 24.2% | 18.9% |
| Edge | +2.1% | +0.4% | -2.4% |
Why Panevėžys
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.59.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Panevėžys below our published probability: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.0% per unit staked (our 56.9% × 1.67 − 1).
Panevėžys vs Šiauliai match preview
Panevėžys enters the match against Šiauliai with a strong probability of winning at 63%, while Šiauliai has a lower chance at 12%. The expected goals suggest a significant advantage for Panevėžys, with a forecast of 1.69 compared to Šiauliai's 0.59. Recent form shows Panevėžys has won three of their last six matches, whereas Šiauliai has struggled, managing only one win in their last six games.
In terms of head-to-head encounters, Panevėžys has secured 2 wins and 1 draw against Šiauliai in their last seven meetings, but Šiauliai has the edge with 4 victories. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Panevėžys, occurring with a 16% probability. Additionally, there is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Panevėžys and Šiauliai expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.28
Panevėžys and Šiauliai attack and defence ratings
Panevėžys
Šiauliai
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
Before and after this match
Panevėžys vs Šiauliai markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Panevėžys | 56.9% | 1.76 | +2.1% | 1.67 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.1% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 37.0% | 2.71 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Panevėžys | 56.9% |
| Draw | 24.2% | |
| Šiauliai | 18.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.5% |
| No | 62.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Panevėžys win | 36.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.4% | |
| Loss | 37.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.2% |
| 2-0 | 14.6% | |
| 1-1 | 11.2% |
Panevėžys vs Šiauliai stats
Panevėžys and Šiauliai recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Panevėžys and Šiauliai season so far
Panevėžys record
- They have won 12 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Šiauliai record
- They have won 5 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 6 penalties (50%).
Panevėžys vs Šiauliai head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Šiauliai | Panevėžys | A Lyga | 1-0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Panevėžys | Šiauliai | A Lyga | 3-2 |
| 2026-04-18 | Šiauliai | Panevėžys | A Lyga | 3-1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Šiauliai | Panevėžys | A Lyga | 3-3 |
| 2025-07-20 | Panevėžys | Šiauliai | A Lyga | 2-0 |
| 2025-06-01 | Šiauliai | Panevėžys | A Lyga | 2-1 |
| 2025-03-02 | Panevėžys | Šiauliai | A Lyga | 1-3 |
| 2025-02-15 | Panevėžys | Šiauliai | Friendlies Clubs | 3-2 |
| 2024-10-27 | Panevėžys | Šiauliai | A Lyga | 1-3 |
| 2024-09-26 | Šiauliai | Panevėžys | A Lyga | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Panevėžys vs Šiauliai odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.8%, draw 23.9%, away 21.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.62 | 3.78 | 4.40 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.58 | 3.95 | 4.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.60 | 3.78 | 4.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.65 | 4.04 | 4.59 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .