Suduva Marijampole
vs
Džiugas Telšiai
Garuda Lions Prediction: Suduva Marijampole
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.09.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Suduva Marijampole is the favourite, not a value bet.
Suduva Marijampole vs Džiugas Telšiai overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Suduva Marijampole vs Džiugas Telšiai
| Probability | Suduva Marijampole | Draw | Džiugas Telšiai |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.3% | 23.5% | 19.2% |
| Market | 66.8% | 20.4% | 12.8% |
| Final | 64.4% | 21.2% | 14.4% |
| Edge | -2.4% | +0.8% | +1.6% |
Why Suduva Marijampole
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.09.
Best available price on the pick: 1.39, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.5% per unit staked (our 64.4% × 1.39 − 1).
Suduva Marijampole vs Džiugas Telšiai match preview
Suduva Marijampole enters this match with a 57% probability of winning against Džiugas Telšiai, who have a 19% chance of securing victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with an expected goals tally of 1.99 for Suduva and 1.09 for Džiugas. Additionally, there is a 59% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Suduva has recorded one win, two losses, and three draws in their last six matches, while Džiugas has one win, three losses, and two draws. Historically, Suduva has performed well against Džiugas, winning four out of their last seven encounters, with Džiugas claiming just one victory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Suduva Marijampole and Džiugas Telšiai expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.08
Suduva Marijampole and Džiugas Telšiai attack and defence ratings
Suduva Marijampole
Džiugas Telšiai
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
Before and after this match
Suduva Marijampole vs Džiugas Telšiai markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Suduva Marijampole | 64.4% | 1.55 | -2.4% | 1.39 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.6% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.7% | 2.34 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Suduva Marijampole | 64.4% |
| Draw | 21.2% | |
| Džiugas Telšiai | 14.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.2% |
| No | 41.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 35.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Suduva Marijampole win | 34.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 42.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.1% |
Suduva Marijampole vs Džiugas Telšiai stats
Suduva Marijampole and Džiugas Telšiai recent form
| Suduva Marijampole |
WLLDDL |
| Džiugas Telšiai |
LWDLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Suduva Marijampole and Džiugas Telšiai season so far
Suduva Marijampole record
- They have won 16 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Džiugas Telšiai record
- They have won 13 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
Suduva Marijampole vs Džiugas Telšiai head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Džiugas Telšiai | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga | 0-2 |
| 2026-06-21 | Džiugas Telšiai | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga | 1-2 |
| 2026-04-19 | Suduva Marijampole | Džiugas Telšiai | A Lyga | 3-2 |
| 2025-10-18 | Džiugas Telšiai | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga | 0-0 |
| 2025-07-27 | Suduva Marijampole | Džiugas Telšiai | A Lyga | 2-3 |
| 2025-05-25 | Džiugas Telšiai | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-28 | Suduva Marijampole | Džiugas Telšiai | A Lyga | 1-0 |
| 2024-09-14 | Suduva Marijampole | Džiugas Telšiai | A Lyga | 2-1 |
| 2024-06-30 | Džiugas Telšiai | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga | 1-0 |
| 2024-05-11 | Suduva Marijampole | Džiugas Telšiai | A Lyga | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Suduva Marijampole vs Džiugas Telšiai odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 66.8%, draw 20.4%, away 12.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.33 | 4.45 | 7.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.38 | 4.33 | 6.25 |
| Betano | 1.39 | 4.15 | 6.50 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 4.60 | 7.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.38 | 4.45 | 5.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.32 | 4.45 | 7.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.36 | 4.63 | 8.31 |
| William Hill | 1.36 | 4.20 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .