Hegelmann Litauen
vs
Kauno Žalgiris
Garuda Lions Prediction: Kauno Žalgiris
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.23.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Hegelmann Litauen vs Kauno Žalgiris overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Hegelmann Litauen vs Kauno Žalgiris
| Probability | Hegelmann Litauen | Draw | Kauno Žalgiris |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.8% | 25.1% | 50.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 24.8% | 25.1% | 50.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Kauno Žalgiris
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.23.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Hegelmann Litauen vs Kauno Žalgiris match preview
Hegelmann Litauen faces Kauno Žalgiris in an upcoming A Lyga match, with the probabilities indicating a 25% chance of a Hegelmann victory, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 50% likelihood of a Kauno Žalgiris win. The expected goals for Hegelmann Litauen stand at 1.23, while Kauno Žalgiris is projected to score 1.82. The most likely scoreline suggested by the model is 1-2, occurring with a 10% probability.
In terms of recent form, Hegelmann Litauen has struggled with a record of L-L-D-D-L-D, while Kauno Žalgiris has shown better results, winning three of their last six matches (L-W-L-W-L-W). The model also indicates a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% probability that both teams will score in this encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Hegelmann Litauen and Kauno Žalgiris expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.05
Hegelmann Litauen and Kauno Žalgiris attack and defence ratings
Hegelmann Litauen
Kauno Žalgiris
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
Hegelmann Litauen vs Kauno Žalgiris markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kauno Žalgiris | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.9% | 2.00 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hegelmann Litauen | 24.8% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Kauno Žalgiris | 50.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.4% |
| No | 39.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 49.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kauno Žalgiris win | 28.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 49.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.6% | |
| 0-2 | 7.8% |
Hegelmann Litauen vs Kauno Žalgiris stats
Hegelmann Litauen and Kauno Žalgiris recent form
| Hegelmann Litauen |
LLDDLD |
| Kauno Žalgiris |
LWLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Hegelmann Litauen and Kauno Žalgiris season so far
Hegelmann Litauen record
- They have won 4 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kauno Žalgiris record
- They have won 17 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 49% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hegelmann Litauen vs Kauno Žalgiris head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Kauno Žalgiris | Hegelmann Litauen | A Lyga | 2-0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Hegelmann Litauen | Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Kauno Žalgiris | Hegelmann Litauen | A Lyga | 5-0 |
| 2025-10-01 | Hegelmann Litauen | Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-27 | Kauno Žalgiris | Hegelmann Litauen | A Lyga | 2-1 |
| 2025-06-19 | Hegelmann Litauen | Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga | 1-2 |
| 2025-04-16 | Kauno Žalgiris | Hegelmann Litauen | A Lyga | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.