Kauno Žalgiris
vs
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Garuda Lions Prediction: Kauno Žalgiris
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Kauno Žalgiris is the favourite, not a value bet.
Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius
| Probability | Kauno Žalgiris | Draw | FK Zalgiris Vilnius |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.1% | 22.7% | 42.2% |
| Market | 51.8% | 24.9% | 23.3% |
| Final | 47.6% | 24.4% | 28.0% |
| Edge | -4.2% | -0.5% | +4.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.79, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.7% per unit staked (our 47.6% × 1.79 − 1).
Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius match preview
Kauno Žalgiris faces FK Zalgiris Vilnius in an upcoming A Lyga match, with the model assigning a 43% probability of a home win for Kauno Žalgiris, while FK Zalgiris Vilnius has a 33% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Kauno Žalgiris, with a 9% likelihood. Both teams are expected to score, with a 69% probability, and the model suggests a high chance of over 2.5 goals at 68%.
In terms of recent form, Kauno Žalgiris has recorded three wins and two losses in their last six matches, while FK Zalgiris Vilnius has achieved four wins, one loss, and one draw in the same period. Historically, the last ten encounters show Kauno Žalgiris with five wins, one draw, and FK Zalgiris Vilnius with four wins. The expected goals for Kauno Žalgiris stand at 1.87, compared to 1.63 for FK Zalgiris Vilnius.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kauno Žalgiris and FK Zalgiris Vilnius expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.82
Kauno Žalgiris and FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack and defence ratings
Kauno Žalgiris
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kauno Žalgiris | 47.6% | 2.10 | -4.2% | 1.79 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.9% | 1.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kauno Žalgiris | 47.6% |
| Draw | 24.4% | |
| FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 28.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.3% |
| No | 26.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kauno Žalgiris win | 18.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.5% | |
| Loss | 64.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.8% |
| 1-2 | 8.0% | |
| 2-2 | 7.3% |
Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius stats
Kauno Žalgiris and FK Zalgiris Vilnius recent form
| Kauno Žalgiris |
LWLWLW |
| FK Zalgiris Vilnius |
WWLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kauno Žalgiris and FK Zalgiris Vilnius season so far
Kauno Žalgiris record
- They have won 17 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 49% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius record
- They have won 16 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga | 3-2 |
| 2026-05-31 | Kauno Žalgiris | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga | 0-1 |
| 2026-04-05 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga | 0-3 |
| 2025-10-22 | Kauno Žalgiris | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-04 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga | 1-2 |
| 2025-05-20 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | Kauno Žalgiris | Cup | 2-4 |
| 2025-05-17 | Kauno Žalgiris | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga | 3-0 |
| 2025-04-06 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga | 0-0 |
| 2024-09-22 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga | 5-0 |
| 2024-07-05 | Kauno Žalgiris | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.8%, draw 24.9%, away 23.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.73 | 3.60 | 3.95 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.70 | 3.75 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 3.70 | 3.75 |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| Dafabet | 1.75 | 3.60 | 3.65 |
| Marathonbet | 1.71 | 3.60 | 3.85 |
| Pinnacle | 1.79 | 3.66 | 4.07 |
| SBO | 1.68 | 3.28 | 3.71 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .