FK Zalgiris Vilnius
vs
Hegelmann Litauen
Garuda Lions Prediction: FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen
| Probability | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | Draw | Hegelmann Litauen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.7% | 21.1% | 17.1% |
| Market | 66.4% | 19.9% | 13.7% |
| Final | 65.2% | 20.2% | 14.6% |
| Edge | -4.7% | +1.3% | +3.4% |
Why FK Zalgiris Vilnius
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.39, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen match preview
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is favored to win against Hegelmann Litauen with a 62% probability, while a draw stands at 21% and Hegelmann Litauen at 17%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1, with a 10% chance. The expected goals for FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 2.25, compared to Hegelmann Litauen's 1.13.
In terms of recent form, FK Zalgiris Vilnius has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last six matches. Meanwhile, Hegelmann Litauen has struggled, with five draws and one loss in their last six games. The model suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 61%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Hegelmann Litauen expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.38
FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Hegelmann Litauen attack and defence ratings
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Hegelmann Litauen
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
Before and after this match
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 65.2% | 1.53 | -4.7% | 1.39 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.6% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.4% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius win | 40.0% | 2.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 65.2% |
| Draw | 20.2% | |
| Hegelmann Litauen | 14.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.4% |
| No | 38.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 34.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius win | 40.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 38.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.7% |
| 1-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 8.6% |
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen stats
FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Hegelmann Litauen recent form
| FK Zalgiris Vilnius |
WLWDWL |
| Hegelmann Litauen |
DDLDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Hegelmann Litauen season so far
FK Zalgiris Vilnius record
- They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
Hegelmann Litauen record
- They have won 4 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Hegelmann Litauen | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga | 2-3 |
| 2026-05-24 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | Hegelmann Litauen | A Lyga | 1-3 |
| 2026-03-22 | Hegelmann Litauen | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga | 0-0 |
| 2026-02-08 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | Hegelmann Litauen | Friendlies Clubs | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-02 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | Hegelmann Litauen | A Lyga | 3-1 |
| 2025-08-24 | Hegelmann Litauen | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga | 2-2 |
| 2025-06-24 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | Hegelmann Litauen | A Lyga | 0-1 |
| 2025-04-20 | Hegelmann Litauen | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga | 2-1 |
| 2025-01-30 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | Hegelmann Litauen | Friendlies Clubs | 2-3 |
| 2024-09-14 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | Hegelmann Litauen | A Lyga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 66.4%, draw 19.9%, away 13.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.34 | 4.55 | 7.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.36 | 4.50 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.38 | 4.50 | 6.10 |
| Betfair | 1.30 | 4.75 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.36 | 4.70 | 6.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.33 | 4.55 | 6.65 |
| Pinnacle | 1.39 | 4.80 | 6.58 |
| William Hill | 1.36 | 4.33 | 6.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .