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A Lyga · Full time ·Matchday 32

Hegelmann Litauen vs Suduva Marijampole

1 – 1 Full time

1′E. Stockunas
34′I. Seck
45′R. Sadauskas
68′Richard
73′M. ChajiaF. Tangiri
73′I. SeckT. Lucky
74′D. KazlauskasA. Kaulinis
74′RichardM. Remeikis
80′M. Remeikis
80′V. ArmanaviciusD. Slendzoka
80′E. KausinisD. Pasilys
80′F. SteponaviciusM. Mikulenas
83′D. Slendzoka
85′V. RadonjaA. Shchedryi
88′S. M. SanokhoD. Antanavicius
90′Wesley

Raudondvario stadionas, RaudondvarioReferee: M. Lukjancukas

Hegelmann Litauen 18%
Draw 25%
Suduva Marijampole 56%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Hegelmann Litauen vs Suduva Marijampole overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Hegelmann Litauen vs Suduva Marijampole

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityHegelmann LitauenDrawSuduva Marijampole
Model16.6%24.2%59.2%
Market19.1%25.5%55.4%
Final18.5%25.2%56.4%
Edge-2.5%-1.3%+3.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Suduva Marijampole

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 0.90.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Suduva Marijampole below the model: +3.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Hegelmann Lita ↓ / Suduva Marijam → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 11% 11% 7% 1 12% 10% 6% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 78%
3+ goals 53%
No goals 7%

Hegelmann Litauen and Suduva Marijampole expected goals

Hegelmann Litauen 0.90
Suduva Marijampole 1.88

Total expected goals: 2.78

Hegelmann Litauen and Suduva Marijampole attack and defence ratings

Hegelmann Litauen

Attack 0.78 -22%
Defence 1.26 +26%

Suduva Marijampole

Attack 1.23 +23%
Defence 0.81 -19%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Hegelmann Litauen vs Suduva Marijampole: result vs prediction

Hegelmann Litauen 1 – 1 Suduva Marijampole

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 32 fixtures

A Lyga

Before and after this match

Hegelmann Litauen vs Suduva Marijampole markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Suduva Marijampole 56.4% 1.77 +3.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 52.6% 1.90 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.5% 1.94 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 81.5% 1.23 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 40.8% 2.45 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Hegelmann Litauen18.5%
Draw25.2%
Suduva Marijampole56.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552.6%
Under 2.547.4%
Both teams to scoreYes51.5%
No48.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)43.6%
12 (either side)74.8%
X2 (draw or away)81.5%
Handicap -1Suduva Marijampole win35.5%
Push (exactly one goal)23.7%
Loss40.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.6%
0-210.9%
0-110.6%

Hegelmann Litauen vs Suduva Marijampole stats

Hegelmann Litauen and Suduva Marijampole recent form

newest first
Hegelmann Litauen DLDDLL
Suduva Marijampole DLWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Hegelmann Litauen and Suduva Marijampole going into this match

league record before kick-off

Hegelmann Litauen record

  • They have won 4 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Suduva Marijampole record

  • They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Hegelmann Litauen vs Suduva Marijampole head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Hegelmann Litauen wins 2Draws 4Suduva Marijampole wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-20Suduva MarijampoleHegelmann LitauenA Lyga5-1
2026-05-16Hegelmann LitauenSuduva MarijampoleA Lyga2-2
2026-03-14Suduva MarijampoleHegelmann LitauenA Lyga0-0
2025-11-08Hegelmann LitauenSuduva MarijampoleA Lyga2-1
2025-08-30Suduva MarijampoleHegelmann LitauenA Lyga2-1
2025-06-30Hegelmann LitauenSuduva MarijampoleA Lyga0-2
2025-04-27Suduva MarijampoleHegelmann LitauenA Lyga4-0
2025-02-12Suduva MarijampoleHegelmann LitauenFriendlies Clubs0-2
2024-11-02Hegelmann LitauenSuduva MarijampoleA Lyga2-1
2024-08-10Suduva MarijampoleHegelmann LitauenA Lyga0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Hegelmann Litauen vs Suduva Marijampole odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 19.1%, draw 25.5%, away 55.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.82 3.52 1.62
Bet365 4.20 3.60 1.65
BetVictor 4.10 3.13 1.57
Betano 4.45 3.60 1.65
Betfair 5.00 3.60 1.60
Marathonbet 4.70 3.52 1.60
Pinnacle 4.79 3.67 1.68
SBO 4.40 3.38 1.60
William Hill 4.75 3.40 1.67

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.70 ▲ +0.15
X 3.52 ▲ +0.07
2 1.62 ▼ -0.03

9 snapshots recorded, from .