FK Zalgiris Vilnius
vs
Suduva Marijampole
Garuda Lions Prediction: FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole
| Probability | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | Draw | Suduva Marijampole |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.7% | 24.5% | 49.8% |
| Market | 41.3% | 27.6% | 31.2% |
| Final | 37.4% | 26.8% | 35.8% |
| Edge | -15.6% | -3.0% | +18.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.28, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole match preview
FK Zalgiris Vilnius faces Suduva Marijampole in a closely contested match, with model probabilities indicating a 38% chance of a Zalgiris victory, a 27% likelihood of a draw, and a 35% chance for Suduva. The expected goals suggest FK Zalgiris Vilnius is projected to score 1.31, while Suduva Marijampole is expected to net 1.88. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of FK Zalgiris Vilnius, with a 7% probability.
Recent form shows FK Zalgiris Vilnius with a mixed record of L-W-D-W-L-W, while Suduva Marijampole has been more consistent with D-D-L-W-W-W. In their last 10 encounters, FK Zalgiris Vilnius has dominated with 5 wins and 5 draws, while Suduva Marijampole has yet to secure a victory. The probabilities indicate a high chance for over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams to score at 63%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Suduva Marijampole expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.19
FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Suduva Marijampole attack and defence ratings
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Suduva Marijampole
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 37.4% | 2.68 | -15.6% | 2.28 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 37.4% |
| Draw | 26.8% | |
| Suduva Marijampole | 35.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.9% |
| No | 37.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius win | 11.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14.4% | |
| Loss | 74.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.2% |
| 1-2 | 9.5% | |
| 0-2 | 7.3% |
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole stats
FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Suduva Marijampole recent form
| FK Zalgiris Vilnius |
LWDWLW |
| Suduva Marijampole |
DDLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Suduva Marijampole season so far
FK Zalgiris Vilnius record
- They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
Suduva Marijampole record
- They have won 15 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Suduva Marijampole | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga | 0-0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Suduva Marijampole | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-10 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-29 | Suduva Marijampole | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga | 1-3 |
| 2025-08-07 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga | 1-0 |
| 2025-06-19 | Suduva Marijampole | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga | 2-2 |
| 2025-04-16 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga | 3-0 |
| 2024-08-25 | Suduva Marijampole | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga | 1-1 |
| 2024-06-23 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga | 4-0 |
| 2024-04-28 | Suduva Marijampole | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.3%, draw 27.6%, away 31.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.20 | 3.28 | 2.86 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.25 | 2.90 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.28 | 3.30 | 2.95 |
| Marathonbet | 2.18 | 3.28 | 2.79 |
| Pinnacle | 2.24 | 3.26 | 3.07 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.10 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .