Suduva Marijampole
vs
Kauno Žalgiris
Garuda Lions Prediction: Kauno Žalgiris
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris
| Probability | Suduva Marijampole | Draw | Kauno Žalgiris |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.1% | 26.7% | 34.2% |
| Market | 22.6% | 27.7% | 49.7% |
| Final | 26.7% | 27.5% | 45.8% |
| Edge | +16.5% | -1.0% | -15.5% |
Why Kauno Žalgiris
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.84, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris match preview
Suduva Marijampole faces Kauno Žalgiris in an upcoming A Lyga match, with the probabilities indicating a 27% chance for a Suduva win, a 27% chance for a draw, and a 47% chance for a Kauno victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%. The expected goals for Suduva stand at 1.19, while Kauno is projected at 1.63, suggesting a competitive encounter.
In terms of recent form, Suduva has recorded one win in their last six matches (L-D-D-L-W-W), while Kauno Žalgiris has been in strong form with four wins in their last six (W-L-W-W-W-D). Additionally, there is a 54% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams are expected to score with a 57% probability.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Suduva Marijampole and Kauno Žalgiris expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.96
Suduva Marijampole and Kauno Žalgiris attack and defence ratings
Suduva Marijampole
Kauno Žalgiris
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
Before and after this match
Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kauno Žalgiris | 45.8% | 2.18 | -15.5% | 1.84 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.8% | 1.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Suduva Marijampole | 26.7% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Kauno Žalgiris | 45.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.7% |
| No | 39.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kauno Žalgiris win | 16.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.9% | |
| Loss | 65.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | |
| 1-2 | 8.1% |
Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris stats
Suduva Marijampole and Kauno Žalgiris recent form
| Suduva Marijampole |
LDDLWW |
| Kauno Žalgiris |
LWLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Suduva Marijampole and Kauno Žalgiris season so far
Suduva Marijampole record
- They have won 15 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kauno Žalgiris record
- They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Kauno Žalgiris | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga | 5-1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Suduva Marijampole | Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga | 2-1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Kauno Žalgiris | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga | 1-1 |
| 2026-01-17 | Suduva Marijampole | Kauno Žalgiris | Friendlies Clubs | 0-4 |
| 2025-10-27 | Suduva Marijampole | Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-24 | Kauno Žalgiris | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-10 | Kauno Žalgiris | Suduva Marijampole | Cup | 0-2 |
| 2025-06-13 | Suduva Marijampole | Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga | 0-0 |
| 2025-04-12 | Kauno Žalgiris | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga | 0-0 |
| 2024-11-09 | Kauno Žalgiris | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga | 2-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 22.6%, draw 27.3%, away 50.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.95 | 3.26 | 1.82 |
| Bet365 | 4.10 | 3.30 | 1.75 |
| Betano | 4.00 | 3.30 | 1.80 |
| Betfair | 4.00 | 3.30 | 1.80 |
| Marathonbet | 3.84 | 3.26 | 1.80 |
| Pinnacle | 4.21 | 3.37 | 1.84 |
| William Hill | 4.00 | 3.10 | 1.83 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .