A Lyga
·
Full time
·Matchday 33
Džiugas Telšiai
vs
TransINVEST Vilnius
3 – 3 Full time
Džiugas Telšiai
24%
Draw
25%
TransINVEST Vilnius
50%
Džiugas Telšiai vs TransINVEST Vilnius overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Džiugas Telšiai vs TransINVEST Vilnius
| Probability | Džiugas Telšiai | Draw | TransINVEST Vilnius |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.7% | 23.0% | 60.3% |
| Market | 26.9% | 26.0% | 47.1% |
| Final | 24.4% | 25.2% | 50.4% |
| Edge | -10.2% | -3.0% | +13.3% |
Why TransINVEST Vilnius
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 0.98.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices TransINVEST Vilnius below the model: +13.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
81%
3+ goals
58%
No goals
6%
Džiugas Telšiai and TransINVEST Vilnius expected goals
Džiugas Telšiai
0.98
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.01
Total expected goals: 3.00
Džiugas Telšiai and TransINVEST Vilnius attack and defence ratings
Džiugas Telšiai
Attack
0.78 -22%
Defence
1.34 +34%
TransINVEST Vilnius
Attack
1.24 +24%
Defence
0.87 -13%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Džiugas Telšiai vs TransINVEST Vilnius: result vs prediction
Džiugas Telšiai 3 – 3 TransINVEST Vilnius
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
Before and after this match
Džiugas Telšiai vs TransINVEST Vilnius markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 50.4% | 1.98 | +13.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.7% | 2.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Džiugas Telšiai | 24.4% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| TransINVEST Vilnius | 50.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.2% |
| No | 44.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 49.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | TransINVEST Vilnius win | 37.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 39.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.9% |
| 0-2 | 10.1% | |
| 1-2 | 10.0% |
Džiugas Telšiai vs TransINVEST Vilnius stats
Džiugas Telšiai and TransINVEST Vilnius recent form
| Džiugas Telšiai |
LLDLLW |
| TransINVEST Vilnius |
WWLWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Džiugas Telšiai and TransINVEST Vilnius going into this match
Džiugas Telšiai record
- They have won 12 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
TransINVEST Vilnius record
- They have won 15 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Džiugas Telšiai vs TransINVEST Vilnius head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
4Džiugas Telšiai wins
1Draws
4TransINVEST Vilnius wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | TransINVEST Vilnius | Džiugas Telšiai | A Lyga | 1-0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Džiugas Telšiai | TransINVEST Vilnius | A Lyga | 3-2 |
| 2026-03-22 | TransINVEST Vilnius | Džiugas Telšiai | A Lyga | 0-0 |
| 2024-08-27 | TransINVEST Vilnius | Džiugas Telšiai | Cup | 1-2 |
| 2024-08-23 | Džiugas Telšiai | TransINVEST Vilnius | A Lyga | 0-3 |
| 2024-06-22 | TransINVEST Vilnius | Džiugas Telšiai | A Lyga | 3-0 |
| 2024-04-27 | Džiugas Telšiai | TransINVEST Vilnius | A Lyga | 2-0 |
| 2024-03-09 | TransINVEST Vilnius | Džiugas Telšiai | A Lyga | 0-1 |
| 2023-09-09 | TransINVEST Vilnius | Džiugas Telšiai | Cup | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Džiugas Telšiai vs TransINVEST Vilnius odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.6%, draw 25.7%, away 47.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.42 | 3.44 | 1.90 |
| Bet365 | 3.20 | 3.50 | 1.90 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.20 | 1.83 |
| Betano | 3.65 | 3.55 | 1.80 |
| Betfair | 3.70 | 3.70 | 1.80 |
| Dafabet | 3.80 | 3.60 | 1.85 |
| Marathonbet | 3.34 | 3.44 | 1.88 |
| Pinnacle | 3.38 | 3.56 | 1.99 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.32 ▼ -0.58
X
3.44 ▼ -0.16
2
1.90 ▲ +0.15
7 snapshots recorded, from .