Džiugas Telšiai
vs
Panevėžys
Garuda Lions Prediction: Panevėžys
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.03.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Džiugas Telšiai vs Panevėžys overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Džiugas Telšiai vs Panevėžys
| Probability | Džiugas Telšiai | Draw | Panevėžys |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.9% | 25.0% | 55.1% |
| Market | 37.6% | 27.6% | 34.8% |
| Final | 33.2% | 26.9% | 39.9% |
| Edge | -4.4% | -0.7% | +5.1% |
Why Panevėžys
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Panevėžys below our published probability: +5.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.80, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +11.7% per unit staked (our 39.9% × 2.80 − 1).
Džiugas Telšiai vs Panevėžys match preview
Džiugas Telšiai faces Panevėžys in their upcoming A Lyga match, with the probabilities indicating a competitive encounter. Džiugas Telšiai has a 33% chance of winning, while Panevėžys holds a 40% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2 in favor of Panevėžys, with an expected goals tally of 1.03 for Džiugas Telšiai and 1.83 for Panevėžys.
In terms of recent form, Džiugas Telšiai has struggled, recording three losses and two draws in their last six matches. Conversely, Panevėžys has shown stronger performance, with four wins in their last six games. Additionally, there is a 54% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance that both teams will score in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Džiugas Telšiai and Panevėžys expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.86
Džiugas Telšiai and Panevėžys attack and defence ratings
Džiugas Telšiai
Panevėžys
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
Džiugas Telšiai vs Panevėžys markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Panevėžys | 39.9% | 2.51 | +5.1% | 2.80 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.9% | 2.23 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Džiugas Telšiai | 33.2% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| Panevėžys | 39.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.0% |
| No | 45.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Panevėžys win | 32.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 44.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 9.6% |
Džiugas Telšiai vs Panevėžys stats
Džiugas Telšiai and Panevėžys recent form
| Džiugas Telšiai |
DLLDLL |
| Panevėžys |
WLWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Džiugas Telšiai and Panevėžys season so far
Džiugas Telšiai record
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
Panevėžys record
- They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Džiugas Telšiai vs Panevėžys head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Panevėžys | Džiugas Telšiai | A Lyga | 1-1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Džiugas Telšiai | Panevėžys | A Lyga | 4-0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Panevėžys | Džiugas Telšiai | A Lyga | 0-1 |
| 2026-01-10 | Panevėžys | Džiugas Telšiai | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-26 | Džiugas Telšiai | Panevėžys | A Lyga | 1-4 |
| 2025-08-08 | Panevėžys | Džiugas Telšiai | A Lyga | 0-1 |
| 2025-06-13 | Džiugas Telšiai | Panevėžys | A Lyga | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-12 | Panevėžys | Džiugas Telšiai | A Lyga | 0-1 |
| 2024-10-22 | Panevėžys | Džiugas Telšiai | A Lyga | 0-0 |
| 2024-10-18 | Panevėžys | Džiugas Telšiai | A Lyga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Džiugas Telšiai vs Panevėžys odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.6%, draw 27.6%, away 34.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.32 | 3.34 | 2.55 |
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 3.25 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.00 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 2.37 | 3.25 | 2.62 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.55 |
| Dafabet | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.32 | 3.34 | 2.55 |
| Pinnacle | 2.51 | 3.09 | 2.80 |
| SBO | 2.44 | 3.07 | 2.30 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.00 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .