Irtysh
vs
FC Astana
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Astana
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Irtysh vs FC Astana overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Irtysh vs FC Astana
| Probability | Irtysh | Draw | FC Astana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.1% | 28.3% | 44.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 27.1% | 28.3% | 44.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why FC Astana
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 1.11.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Irtysh vs FC Astana match preview
In the upcoming match between Irtysh and FC Astana, the probabilities indicate a competitive encounter, with FC Astana favored at 45% to win, while Irtysh has a 27% chance, and a draw stands at 28%. The most likely scoreline projected by the model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. Both teams have a reasonable chance of scoring, with 53% likelihood for both teams to find the net, and the total goals exceeding 2.5 at 48%.
Recent form shows Irtysh with mixed results, having won two of their last six matches, while FC Astana has been stronger, winning four of their last six. The expected goals for Irtysh are 1.11, compared to 1.49 for FC Astana, suggesting a slight edge for the visitors in offensive production. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Irtysh and FC Astana expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.60
Irtysh and FC Astana attack and defence ratings
Irtysh
FC Astana
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
Irtysh vs FC Astana markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Astana | 44.6% | 2.24 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.4% | 1.81 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Irtysh | 27.1% |
| Draw | 28.3% | |
| FC Astana | 44.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.2% |
| No | 46.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Astana win | 22.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 55.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 0-1 | 9.8% | |
| 1-2 | 9.1% |
Irtysh vs FC Astana stats
Irtysh and FC Astana recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Irtysh and FC Astana season so far
Irtysh record
- They have won 6 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 25 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Astana record
- They have won 14 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Irtysh vs FC Astana head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | FC Astana | Irtysh | Kazakhstan Premier League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.