Irtysh
vs
Kyzyl-Zhar
Garuda Lions Prediction: Irtysh
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Irtysh vs Kyzyl-Zhar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Irtysh vs Kyzyl-Zhar
| Probability | Irtysh | Draw | Kyzyl-Zhar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.3% | 25.6% | 19.1% |
| Market | 47.2% | 27.3% | 25.5% |
| Final | 49.2% | 26.9% | 23.9% |
| Edge | +8.1% | -1.7% | -6.4% |
Why Irtysh
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Irtysh below the model: +8.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Irtysh vs Kyzyl-Zhar match preview
Irtysh hosts Kyzyl-Zhar in a Kazakhstan Premier League matchup on October 10, 2026. According to our model, Irtysh has a 49% probability of winning, while Kyzyl-Zhar stands at 24% and the draw at 27%. The expected goals for Irtysh is 1.76 compared to Kyzyl-Zhar's 0.95, indicating a stronger offensive performance anticipated from the home side. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0, occurring at an 11% likelihood.
Recent form shows Irtysh with two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Kyzyl-Zhar has struggled with four losses and two draws. In their last six encounters, Irtysh has secured one win, with Kyzyl-Zhar winning three times and two matches ending in draws. Both teams are expected to score, with a probability of 52%, and over 2.5 goals is forecasted at 51%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Irtysh and Kyzyl-Zhar expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.71
Irtysh and Kyzyl-Zhar attack and defence ratings
Irtysh
Kyzyl-Zhar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
Before and after this match
Irtysh vs Kyzyl-Zhar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Irtysh | 49.2% | 2.03 | +8.1% | 1.98 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.7% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Irtysh | 49.2% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| Kyzyl-Zhar | 23.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.9% |
| No | 48.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Irtysh win | 31.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 44.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 1-0 | 10.6% | |
| 2-0 | 10.3% |
Irtysh vs Kyzyl-Zhar stats
Irtysh and Kyzyl-Zhar recent form
| Irtysh |
WWLWLL |
| Kyzyl-Zhar |
DLLLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Irtysh and Kyzyl-Zhar season so far
Irtysh record
- They have won 6 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 25 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kyzyl-Zhar record
- They have won 6 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 26 matches.
Irtysh vs Kyzyl-Zhar head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | Irtysh | Kyzyl-Zhar | Cup | 1-2 |
| 2026-03-20 | Kyzyl-Zhar | Irtysh | Kazakhstan Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2020-03-14 | Irtysh | Kyzyl-Zhar | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2018-09-16 | Irtysh | Kyzyl-Zhar | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2018-08-05 | Kyzyl-Zhar | Irtysh | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2018-05-19 | Irtysh | Kyzyl-Zhar | Premier League | 5-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Irtysh vs Kyzyl-Zhar odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.2%, draw 27.3%, away 25.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.97 | 3.47 | 3.74 |
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.45 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.93 | 3.35 | 3.55 |
| Marathonbet | 1.87 | 3.30 | 3.56 |
| Pinnacle | 1.98 | 3.30 | 3.38 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.20 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .