Zhenys
vs
Atyrau
Garuda Lions Prediction: Zhenys
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
Zhenys vs Atyrau overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Zhenys vs Atyrau
| Probability | Zhenys | Draw | Atyrau |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.0% | 26.9% | 16.1% |
| Market | 54.3% | 25.9% | 19.7% |
| Final | 55.0% | 26.2% | 18.8% |
| Edge | +2.6% | +0.9% | -3.6% |
Why Zhenys
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Zhenys below the model: +2.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Zhenys vs Atyrau match preview
Zhenys will face Atyrau in the Kazakhstan Premier League on October 10, 2026. The model gives Zhenys a 57% chance of winning, while Atyrau has a 16% probability of securing victory, with a 27% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals indicate Zhenys at 1.63 and Atyrau at 0.76, suggesting a potential scoreline of 1-0, which has a 14% probability.
Recent form shows Zhenys with two wins in their last six matches, while Atyrau has struggled, managing only one win in their last six outings. In their last three head-to-head encounters, Zhenys has won once, with the other two matches ending in draws. The overall confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating moderate uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Zhenys and Atyrau expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.38
Zhenys and Atyrau attack and defence ratings
Zhenys
Atyrau
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
Before and after this match
Zhenys vs Atyrau markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zhenys | 55.0% | 1.82 | +2.6% | 1.72 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.2% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.0% | 2.32 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zhenys | 55.0% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Atyrau | 18.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.8% |
| No | 56.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Zhenys win | 31.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.2% | |
| Loss | 43.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.9% |
| 1-1 | 12.5% | |
| 2-0 | 12.2% |
Zhenys vs Atyrau stats
Zhenys and Atyrau recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Zhenys and Atyrau season so far
Zhenys record
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Atyrau record
- They have won 4 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 25 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Zhenys vs Atyrau head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | Atyrau | Zhenys | Kazakhstan Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Atyrau | Zhenys | Kazakhstan Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-06-21 | Zhenys | Atyrau | Kazakhstan Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2024-09-21 | Atyrau | Zhenys | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2024-06-02 | Zhenys | Atyrau | Premier League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Zhenys vs Atyrau odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.3%, draw 25.9%, away 19.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.71 | 3.66 | 4.84 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.40 | 4.50 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.72 | 3.50 | 4.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.63 | 3.48 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .