Kaspiy
vs
Altay
Garuda Lions Prediction: Kaspiy
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Kaspiy vs Altay overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kaspiy vs Altay
| Probability | Kaspiy | Draw | Altay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.6% | 24.7% | 25.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 49.6% | 24.7% | 25.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Kaspiy
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.30.
Kaspiy vs Altay match preview
Kaspiy is set to face Altay in the Kazakhstan Premier League, with kickoff scheduled for October 11, 2026. The model gives Kaspiy a 50% chance of winning, while Altay has a 26% probability, and the draw stands at 25%. The expected goals indicate Kaspiy at 1.87 and Altay at 1.30, suggesting a competitive match. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Kaspiy, occurring with a 10% probability.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Kaspiy recording one win in their last six matches, while Altay has two wins in the same timeframe. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 61%, and there is a 63% chance that both teams will score. In their last head-to-head encounter, Kaspiy and Altay ended in a draw, with Kaspiy having no wins against Altay historically.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kaspiy and Altay expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.17
Kaspiy and Altay attack and defence ratings
Kaspiy
Altay
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kaspiy vs Altay markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kaspiy | 49.6% | 2.02 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.3% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kaspiy | 49.6% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| Altay | 25.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.6% |
| No | 37.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kaspiy win | 28.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 50.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.3% |
Kaspiy vs Altay stats
Kaspiy and Altay recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kaspiy and Altay season so far
Kaspiy record
- They have won 7 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Altay record
- They have won 5 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 25 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kaspiy vs Altay head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Altay | Kaspiy | Kazakhstan Premier League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.