Ulytau
vs
Okzhetpes
Garuda Lions Prediction: Okzhetpes
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Ulytau vs Okzhetpes overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ulytau vs Okzhetpes
| Probability | Ulytau | Draw | Okzhetpes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.8% | 24.4% | 45.9% |
| Market | 33.9% | 24.1% | 42.0% |
| Final | 32.9% | 24.2% | 43.0% |
| Edge | -4.1% | +0.3% | +3.9% |
Why Okzhetpes
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.48.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Okzhetpes below the model: +3.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Ulytau vs Okzhetpes match preview
Ulytau faces Okzhetpes in the Kazakhstan Premier League with kickoff set for October 11, 2026. The model indicates a 33% probability of a Ulytau win, a 23% chance of a draw, and a 43% likelihood of an Okzhetpes victory. The expected goals suggest Ulytau will score 1.48, while Okzhetpes is projected to net 1.87. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring at a 9% probability.
In terms of recent form, Ulytau has recorded two draws, two losses, and one win in their last five matches, while Okzhetpes has achieved four wins and one loss in the same period. Historical head-to-head results show that Ulytau has not secured a win against Okzhetpes in their last three encounters, with Okzhetpes winning all three. The probabilities indicate a strong chance for a high-scoring match, with over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 66%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ulytau and Okzhetpes expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.35
Ulytau and Okzhetpes attack and defence ratings
Ulytau
Okzhetpes
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ulytau vs Okzhetpes markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Okzhetpes | 43.0% | 2.33 | +3.9% | 2.32 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ulytau | 32.9% |
| Draw | 24.2% | |
| Okzhetpes | 43.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.3% |
| No | 33.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Okzhetpes win | 25.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 54.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.1% | |
| 2-1 | 7.2% |
Ulytau vs Okzhetpes stats
Ulytau and Okzhetpes recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ulytau and Okzhetpes season so far
Ulytau record
- They have won 8 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 25 matches.
Okzhetpes record
- They have won 12 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ulytau vs Okzhetpes head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Okzhetpes | Ulytau | Kazakhstan Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2025-07-19 | Okzhetpes | Ulytau | Kazakhstan Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-19 | Ulytau | Okzhetpes | Kazakhstan Premier League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ulytau vs Okzhetpes odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.9%, draw 24.1%, away 42.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.71 | 4.22 | 2.18 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.80 | 2.15 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 3.55 | 2.32 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .