Atyrau
vs
Yelimay Semey
Garuda Lions Prediction: Yelimay Semey
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Atyrau vs Yelimay Semey overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atyrau vs Yelimay Semey
| Probability | Atyrau | Draw | Yelimay Semey |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.8% | 30.8% | 41.3% |
| Market | 24.6% | 27.5% | 47.9% |
| Final | 25.4% | 28.3% | 46.3% |
| Edge | +3.3% | +3.3% | -6.6% |
Why Yelimay Semey
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.96, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Atyrau vs Yelimay Semey match preview
Atyrau faces Yelimay Semey in the Kazakhstan Premier League with the probabilities indicating a competitive match. Atyrau has a 28% chance of winning, while Yelimay Semey is favored at 41%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring at a 12% probability. The expected goals for Atyrau stand at 1.00, compared to Yelimay Semey's 1.27, suggesting a slight edge for the visitors in offensive potential.
In terms of recent form, Atyrau has struggled, recording two losses followed by a draw and another loss, while Yelimay Semey has shown better form with three wins in their last five matches. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 40%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 47%, indicating potential for a closely contested encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atyrau and Yelimay Semey expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.28
Atyrau and Yelimay Semey attack and defence ratings
Atyrau
Yelimay Semey
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
Atyrau vs Yelimay Semey markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yelimay Semey | 46.3% | 2.16 | -6.6% | 1.96 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.2% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atyrau | 25.4% |
| Draw | 28.3% | |
| Yelimay Semey | 46.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.9% |
| No | 53.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Yelimay Semey win | 19.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 58.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 0-1 | 11.8% | |
| 0-0 | 11.6% |
Atyrau vs Yelimay Semey stats
Atyrau and Yelimay Semey recent form
| Atyrau |
LLWLLD |
| Yelimay Semey |
WWLLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atyrau and Yelimay Semey season so far
Atyrau record
- They have won 4 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 25 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Yelimay Semey record
- They have won 10 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atyrau vs Yelimay Semey head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Yelimay Semey | Atyrau | Kazakhstan Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-26 | Yelimay Semey | Atyrau | Kazakhstan Premier League | 3-2 |
| 2025-03-01 | Atyrau | Yelimay Semey | Kazakhstan Premier League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atyrau vs Yelimay Semey odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 24.6%, draw 27.5%, away 47.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.82 | 3.42 | 1.96 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .