Atyrau
vs
Yelimay Semey
1 – 2 Full time
| 31′ | D. DeputyHenrique | ||
| 39′ | A. Ashirbek | ||
| 45′ | R. Orazov | ||
| 58′ | S. Satanov | ||
| 60′ | R. Murillo | ||
| 72′ | A. ZhaksylykovF. Placca | ||
| 72′ | R. MurilloH. Ilic | ||
| 79′ | E. OforiK. Dorofeev | ||
| 85′ | D. Pantelic | ||
| 85′ | ChinaZ. Payruz | ||
| 87′ | Z. Payruz |
Atyrau vs Yelimay Semey overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atyrau vs Yelimay Semey
| Probability | Atyrau | Draw | Yelimay Semey |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.7% | 29.5% | 34.8% |
| Market | 28.5% | 26.1% | 45.4% |
| Final | 30.3% | 27.0% | 42.7% |
| Edge | +1.8% | +0.9% | -2.7% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atyrau and Yelimay Semey expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.51
Atyrau and Yelimay Semey attack and defence ratings
Atyrau
Yelimay Semey
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Atyrau vs Yelimay Semey: result vs prediction
Atyrau 1 – 2 Yelimay Semey
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Before and after this match
Atyrau vs Yelimay Semey markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yelimay Semey | 42.7% | 2.34 | -2.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.1% | 1.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atyrau | 30.3% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| Yelimay Semey | 42.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% |
| No | 47.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Yelimay Semey win | 15.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.2% | |
| Loss | 65.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 0-0 | 9.5% | |
| 1-0 | 9.0% |
Atyrau vs Yelimay Semey stats
Atyrau and Yelimay Semey recent form
| Atyrau |
WLLWLL |
| Yelimay Semey |
LWWLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atyrau and Yelimay Semey going into this match
Atyrau record
- They have won 5 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 26 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Yelimay Semey record
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atyrau vs Yelimay Semey head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Yelimay Semey | Atyrau | Kazakhstan Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-26 | Yelimay Semey | Atyrau | Kazakhstan Premier League | 3-2 |
| 2025-03-01 | Atyrau | Yelimay Semey | Kazakhstan Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2024-10-26 | Atyrau | Yelimay Semey | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2024-03-02 | Yelimay Semey | Atyrau | Premier League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atyrau vs Yelimay Semey odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.5%, draw 26.1%, away 45.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.34 | 3.58 | 2.06 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.50 | 1.91 |
| Betano | 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| Betfair | 3.25 | 3.60 | 1.91 |
| Dafabet | 3.15 | 3.45 | 2.04 |
| Marathonbet | 3.18 | 3.40 | 1.96 |
| Pinnacle | 3.12 | 3.38 | 2.05 |
| William Hill | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .