FC Astana
vs
Kaisar
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Astana
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 0.81.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — FC Astana is the favourite, not a value bet.
FC Astana vs Kaisar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Astana vs Kaisar
| Probability | FC Astana | Draw | Kaisar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69.1% | 19.8% | 11.1% |
| Market | 70.7% | 19.1% | 10.1% |
| Final | 70.3% | 19.3% | 10.4% |
| Edge | -0.4% | +0.2% | +0.3% |
Why FC Astana
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.32, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.2% per unit staked (our 70.3% × 1.32 − 1).
FC Astana vs Kaisar match preview
FC Astana enters this matchup with a 69% probability of winning against Kaisar, who has an 11% chance of securing a victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0 in favor of FC Astana, with an expected goals tally of 2.25 for Astana and 0.81 for Kaisar. Recent form shows FC Astana with mixed results, recording two wins and three draws in their last six matches, while Kaisar has struggled, managing only one win in their last six outings.
In terms of scoring, there is a 59% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams have a 50% chance of scoring. The head-to-head record over the last three encounters indicates that FC Astana has one win and two draws against Kaisar, who has yet to secure a win in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Astana and Kaisar expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.06
FC Astana and Kaisar attack and defence ratings
FC Astana
Kaisar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Astana vs Kaisar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Astana | 70.3% | 1.42 | -0.4% | 1.32 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.6% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FC Astana win | 46.4% | 2.16 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Astana | 70.3% |
| Draw | 19.3% | |
| Kaisar | 10.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.5% |
| No | 49.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 29.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Astana win | 46.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 30.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.9% |
| 1-0 | 9.7% | |
| 2-1 | 9.6% |
FC Astana vs Kaisar stats
FC Astana and Kaisar recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Astana and Kaisar season so far
FC Astana record
- They have won 15 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Kaisar record
- They have won 4 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 27 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Astana vs Kaisar head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | Kaisar | FC Astana | Kazakhstan Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-28 | FC Astana | Kaisar | Kazakhstan Premier League | 5-1 |
| 2025-05-04 | Kaisar | FC Astana | Kazakhstan Premier League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Astana vs Kaisar odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 70.7%, draw 19.1%, away 10.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.30 | 5.42 | 9.20 |
| Betano | 1.31 | 4.65 | 9.00 |
| Betfair | 1.25 | 5.00 | 9.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.32 | 4.50 | 8.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .