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Kazakhstan Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 25

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Ulytau

3 – 1 Full time

16′U. Milovanovic
20′V. Lisakovich
37′A. Akhmedov
39′D. Carmona Sierra
45′A. Tagybergen
55′A. Zuev
57′A. BougnoneR. Serikkul
60′V. Lisakovich
62′R. AsrankulovA. Borsic
62′A. ZuevL. Guerra
63′A. Talal
70′H. HaradaA. Taubay
70′A. AkhmedovO. Nurali
72′O. Nurali
76′A. TalalZ. Zhumashev
90′K. KishiB. Daniyarov
90′U. Milovanovic

Centralnyj Stadion, KostanayReferee: R. Sultangaliev

FK Tobol Kostanay 50%
Draw 27%
Ulytau 23%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Ulytau overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FK Tobol Kostanay vs Ulytau

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFK Tobol KostanayDrawUlytau
Model43.9%30.8%25.3%
Market51.8%25.5%22.7%
Final49.8%26.8%23.3%
Edge-7.9%+5.3%+2.6%

Confidence: Low

Why FK Tobol Kostanay

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.92.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FK Tobol Kosta ↓ / Ulytau → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 9% 1 13% 14% 2 9% 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 67%
3+ goals 39%
No goals 12%

FK Tobol Kostanay and Ulytau expected goals

FK Tobol Kostanay 1.31
Ulytau 0.92

Total expected goals: 2.23

FK Tobol Kostanay and Ulytau attack and defence ratings

FK Tobol Kostanay

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Ulytau

Attack 0.83 -17%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Ulytau: result vs prediction

FK Tobol Kostanay 3 – 1 Ulytau

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 25 fixtures

Kazakhstan Premier League

Before and after this match

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Ulytau markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FK Tobol Kostanay 49.8% 2.01 -7.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 61.4% 1.63 — —
Both teams to score No 54.6% 1.83 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 76.7% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 55.8% 1.79 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FK Tobol Kostanay49.8%
Draw26.8%
Ulytau23.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.538.6%
Under 2.561.4%
Both teams to scoreYes45.4%
No54.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)76.7%
12 (either side)73.2%
X2 (draw or away)50.2%
Handicap -1FK Tobol Kostanay win21.1%
Push (exactly one goal)23.1%
Loss55.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.3%
1-012.7%
0-012.0%

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Ulytau stats

FK Tobol Kostanay and Ulytau recent form

newest first
FK Tobol Kostanay LWWLLL
Ulytau WLDLLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FK Tobol Kostanay and Ulytau going into this match

league record before kick-off

FK Tobol Kostanay record

  • They have won 8 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 23 matches.

Ulytau record

  • They have won 8 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 23 matches.

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Ulytau head-to-head

Last 3 meetings

1FK Tobol Kostanay wins 1Draws 1Ulytau wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-19UlytauFK Tobol KostanayKazakhstan Premier League2-1
2025-10-26UlytauFK Tobol KostanayKazakhstan Premier League2-2
2025-03-01FK Tobol KostanayUlytauKazakhstan Premier League2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Ulytau odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 49.5%, draw 26.7%, away 23.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.83 3.66 4.12
Bet365 1.60 3.70 4.75
Betano 2.00 3.30 3.45
Betfair 2.05 3.30 3.10
Dafabet 1.96 3.30 3.35
Marathonbet 1.75 3.50 3.94
Pinnacle 1.78 3.47 3.81
Superbet 2.00 3.40 3.40
Unibet 1.80 3.10 3.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.77 ▼ -0.31
X 3.58 ▲ +0.18
2 4.03 ▲ +0.83

11 snapshots recorded, from .