Kaspiy
vs
FK Tobol Kostanay
1 – 0 Full time
Kaspiy vs FK Tobol Kostanay overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kaspiy vs FK Tobol Kostanay
| Probability | Kaspiy | Draw | FK Tobol Kostanay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.6% | 25.6% | 27.8% |
| Market | 26.2% | 28.2% | 45.6% |
| Final | 31.3% | 27.6% | 41.2% |
| Edge | +20.4% | -2.6% | -17.8% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kaspiy and FK Tobol Kostanay expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.05
Kaspiy and FK Tobol Kostanay attack and defence ratings
Kaspiy
FK Tobol Kostanay
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Kaspiy vs FK Tobol Kostanay: result vs prediction
Kaspiy 1 – 0 FK Tobol Kostanay
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kaspiy vs FK Tobol Kostanay markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 41.2% | 2.43 | -17.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kaspiy | 31.3% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| FK Tobol Kostanay | 41.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.3% |
| No | 38.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Tobol Kostanay win | 12.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.3% | |
| Loss | 72.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 2-0 | 7.2% |
Kaspiy vs FK Tobol Kostanay stats
Kaspiy and FK Tobol Kostanay recent form
| Kaspiy |
DDLWDW |
| FK Tobol Kostanay |
WWLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kaspiy and FK Tobol Kostanay going into this match
Kaspiy record
- They have won 7 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FK Tobol Kostanay record
- They have won 8 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 23 matches.
Kaspiy vs FK Tobol Kostanay head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | FK Tobol Kostanay | Kaspiy | Kazakhstan Premier League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Kaspiy vs FK Tobol Kostanay odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.2%, draw 28.2%, away 45.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.92 | 3.22 | 2.01 |
| Betfair | 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.91 |
| Unibet | 2.60 | 3.25 | 2.28 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .