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Kazakhstan Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 21

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Kaisar

3 – 2 Full time

Centralnyj Stadion, KostanayReferee: S. Karabaev

FK Tobol Kostanay 53%
Draw 26%
Kaisar 21%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Kaisar overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FK Tobol Kostanay vs Kaisar

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFK Tobol KostanayDrawKaisar
Model42.2%32.6%25.3%
Market56.8%24.2%18.9%
Final53.2%26.3%20.5%
Edge-14.7%+8.3%+6.3%

Confidence: Low

Why FK Tobol Kostanay

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.18 vs 0.86.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FK Tobol Kosta ↓ / Kaisar → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 14% 10% 1 14% 14% 2 9% 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 86%
2+ goals 62%
3+ goals 33%
No goals 14%

FK Tobol Kostanay and Kaisar expected goals

FK Tobol Kostanay 1.18
Kaisar 0.86

Total expected goals: 2.04

FK Tobol Kostanay and Kaisar attack and defence ratings

FK Tobol Kostanay

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Kaisar

Attack 0.77 -23%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Kaisar: result vs prediction

FK Tobol Kostanay 3 – 2 Kaisar

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 21 fixtures

Kazakhstan Premier League

Before and after this match

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Kaisar markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FK Tobol Kostanay 53.2% 1.88 -14.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 66.6% 1.50 — —
Both teams to score No 58.8% 1.70 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 79.5% 1.26 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 57.8% 1.73 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FK Tobol Kostanay53.2%
Draw26.3%
Kaisar20.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.533.4%
Under 2.566.6%
Both teams to scoreYes41.2%
No58.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)79.5%
12 (either side)73.7%
X2 (draw or away)46.8%
Handicap -1FK Tobol Kostanay win18.9%
Push (exactly one goal)23.3%
Loss57.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.5%
0-014.3%
1-014.1%

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Kaisar stats

FK Tobol Kostanay and Kaisar recent form

newest first
FK Tobol Kostanay WLLLDW
Kaisar LDDLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FK Tobol Kostanay and Kaisar going into this match

league record before kick-off

FK Tobol Kostanay record

  • They have won 8 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 23 matches.

Kaisar record

  • They have won 3 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 24 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Kaisar head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3FK Tobol Kostanay wins 2Draws 5Kaisar wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-17KaisarFK Tobol KostanayKazakhstan Premier League2-1
2026-05-13KaisarFK Tobol KostanayCup1-1
2025-09-28FK Tobol KostanayKaisarKazakhstan Premier League1-0
2025-06-15KaisarFK Tobol KostanayKazakhstan Premier League1-1
2024-11-10KaisarFK Tobol KostanayPremier League2-0
2024-06-01FK Tobol KostanayKaisarPremier League1-2
2024-04-13KaisarFK Tobol KostanayCup0-3
2023-08-06FK Tobol KostanayKaisarPremier League0-2
2023-05-14KaisarFK Tobol KostanayPremier League1-0
2021-06-23KaisarFK Tobol KostanayPremier League1-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Kaisar odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 56.8%, draw 24.2%, away 18.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.60 3.75 4.80
1xBet 1.63 3.84 5.27
Bet365 1.62 3.60 4.50
Betano 1.62 3.75 4.90
Betfair 1.55 3.90 5.00
Marathonbet 1.56 3.68 5.05
Pinnacle 1.60 3.76 4.62
SBO 1.58 3.50 4.46
William Hill 1.62 3.50 4.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.60 ▼ -0.02
X 3.75 —
2 4.80 ▼ -0.10

2 snapshots recorded, from .