Ordabasy
vs
Kyzyl-Zhar
3 – 0 Full time
Ordabasy vs Kyzyl-Zhar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ordabasy vs Kyzyl-Zhar
| Probability | Ordabasy | Draw | Kyzyl-Zhar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 77.4% | 15.3% | 7.3% |
| Market | 66.0% | 21.0% | 12.9% |
| Final | 68.9% | 19.6% | 11.5% |
| Edge | +11.4% | -5.8% | -5.6% |
Why Ordabasy
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.67 vs 0.74.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Ordabasy below the model: +11.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ordabasy and Kyzyl-Zhar expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.41
Ordabasy and Kyzyl-Zhar attack and defence ratings
Ordabasy
Kyzyl-Zhar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ordabasy vs Kyzyl-Zhar: result vs prediction
Ordabasy 3 – 0 Kyzyl-Zhar
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ordabasy vs Kyzyl-Zhar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ordabasy | 68.9% | 1.45 | +11.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.0% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.5% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Ordabasy win | 57.3% | 1.74 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ordabasy | 68.9% |
| Draw | 19.6% | |
| Kyzyl-Zhar | 11.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.3% |
| No | 50.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 31.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ordabasy win | 57.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 22.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.8% |
| 3-0 | 10.5% | |
| 2-1 | 8.7% |
Ordabasy vs Kyzyl-Zhar stats
Ordabasy and Kyzyl-Zhar recent form
| Ordabasy |
WWWLWL |
| Kyzyl-Zhar |
DDWWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ordabasy and Kyzyl-Zhar going into this match
Ordabasy record
- They have won 17 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kyzyl-Zhar record
- They have won 6 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 24 matches.
Ordabasy vs Kyzyl-Zhar head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Kyzyl-Zhar | Ordabasy | Kazakhstan Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-28 | Ordabasy | Kyzyl-Zhar | Cup | 1-0 |
| 2025-07-05 | Kyzyl-Zhar | Ordabasy | Kazakhstan Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-06-25 | Kyzyl-Zhar | Ordabasy | Cup | 0-0 |
| 2025-03-30 | Ordabasy | Kyzyl-Zhar | Kazakhstan Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2024-10-03 | Kyzyl-Zhar | Ordabasy | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2024-04-20 | Ordabasy | Kyzyl-Zhar | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2023-07-22 | Ordabasy | Kyzyl-Zhar | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2023-06-07 | Kyzyl-Zhar | Ordabasy | Cup | 1-0 |
| 2023-05-28 | Kyzyl-Zhar | Ordabasy | Premier League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ordabasy vs Kyzyl-Zhar odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 66.0%, draw 21.0%, away 12.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.51 | 3.92 | 6.84 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.35 | 4.30 | 7.20 |
| Superbet | 1.37 | 4.45 | 7.00 |
| Unibet | 1.29 | 4.40 | 7.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .