Atyrau
vs
FC Astana
2 – 3 Full time
Atyrau vs FC Astana overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atyrau vs FC Astana
| Probability | Atyrau | Draw | FC Astana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.8% | 29.0% | 50.2% |
| Market | 15.1% | 26.6% | 58.2% |
| Final | 16.6% | 27.2% | 56.2% |
| Edge | +5.7% | +2.4% | -8.1% |
Why FC Astana
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atyrau and FC Astana expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.32
Atyrau and FC Astana attack and defence ratings
Atyrau
FC Astana
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Atyrau vs FC Astana: result vs prediction
Atyrau 2 – 3 FC Astana
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atyrau vs FC Astana markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Astana | 56.2% | 1.78 | -8.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 83.4% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atyrau | 16.6% |
| Draw | 27.2% | |
| FC Astana | 56.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.6% |
| No | 54.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 43.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 83.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Astana win | 25.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.2% | |
| Loss | 50.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 0-1 | 13.1% | |
| 0-0 | 11.0% |
Atyrau vs FC Astana stats
Atyrau and FC Astana recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atyrau and FC Astana going into this match
Atyrau record
- They have won 4 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 23 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Astana record
- They have won 13 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Atyrau vs FC Astana head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | FC Astana | Atyrau | Kazakhstan Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-30 | Atyrau | FC Astana | Kazakhstan Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2025-04-26 | FC Astana | Atyrau | Kazakhstan Premier League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atyrau vs FC Astana odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 15.1%, draw 26.6%, away 58.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 7.80 | 3.41 | 1.56 |
| Betfair | 6.00 | 3.60 | 1.50 |
| Unibet | 4.20 | 3.35 | 1.65 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .