FC Astana
vs
Yelimay Semey
4 – 0 Full time
| 29′ | A. Tulubay | ||
| 40′ | I. Basic | ||
| 42′ | A. Ashirbek | ||
| 45′ | I. Basic | ||
| 46′ | S. BasmanovM. Abrayev | ||
| 46′ | I. SviridovR. Murillo | ||
| 49′ | M. Tomasov | ||
| 58′ | F. PlaccaR. Murtazaev | ||
| 58′ | ChinaA. Zhaksylykov | ||
| 61′ | A. BakhtiyarovZ. Payruz | ||
| 65′ | H. Ilic | ||
| 66′ | R. Karimov | ||
| 67′ | B. IslamkhanA. Beysebekov | ||
| 67′ | R. KarimovN. Buric | ||
| 69′ | K. KazukolovasA. Kasym | ||
| 75′ | A. Zhumakhanov | ||
| 80′ | A. ZhumakhanovA. Baygaliev | ||
| 82′ | D. KaramanA. Merkel | ||
| 90′ | M. Abrayev |
FC Astana vs Yelimay Semey overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Astana vs Yelimay Semey
| Probability | FC Astana | Draw | Yelimay Semey |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.7% | 22.5% | 17.8% |
| Market | 56.7% | 24.1% | 19.2% |
| Final | 57.5% | 23.7% | 18.9% |
| Edge | +3.0% | -1.6% | -1.4% |
Why FC Astana
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.07.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Astana below the model: +3.0 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Astana and Yelimay Semey expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.16
FC Astana and Yelimay Semey attack and defence ratings
FC Astana
Yelimay Semey
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
FC Astana vs Yelimay Semey: result vs prediction
FC Astana 4 – 0 Yelimay Semey
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Astana vs Yelimay Semey markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Astana | 57.5% | 1.74 | +3.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.1% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.1% | 2.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Astana | 57.5% |
| Draw | 23.7% | |
| Yelimay Semey | 18.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.5% |
| No | 41.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Astana win | 37.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 40.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.3% |
FC Astana vs Yelimay Semey stats
FC Astana and Yelimay Semey recent form
| FC Astana |
WDWWWL |
| Yelimay Semey |
LDWDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Astana and Yelimay Semey going into this match
FC Astana record
- They have won 13 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Yelimay Semey record
- They have won 8 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Astana vs Yelimay Semey head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Yelimay Semey | FC Astana | Kazakhstan Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2025-09-14 | FC Astana | Yelimay Semey | Kazakhstan Premier League | 3-3 |
| 2025-05-30 | Yelimay Semey | FC Astana | Kazakhstan Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2024-10-20 | Yelimay Semey | FC Astana | Premier League | 0-3 |
| 2024-03-31 | FC Astana | Yelimay Semey | Premier League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Astana vs Yelimay Semey odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.4%, draw 24.7%, away 22.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.64 | 3.91 | 5.06 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 3.70 | 4.33 |
| Betano | 1.82 | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.60 | 3.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.78 | 3.45 | 3.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.57 | 3.75 | 4.85 |
| Pinnacle | 1.59 | 3.82 | 4.63 |
| Superbet | 1.82 | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| Unibet | 1.70 | 3.45 | 3.85 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .