Irtysh
vs
Aktobe
2 – 1 Full time
Irtysh vs Aktobe overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Irtysh vs Aktobe
| Probability | Irtysh | Draw | Aktobe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.7% | 27.5% | 45.7% |
| Market | 28.1% | 26.9% | 45.0% |
| Final | 27.8% | 27.0% | 45.2% |
| Edge | -1.4% | +0.7% | +0.7% |
Why Aktobe
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 1.15.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Irtysh and Aktobe expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.70
Irtysh and Aktobe attack and defence ratings
Irtysh
Aktobe
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Irtysh vs Aktobe: result vs prediction
Irtysh 2 – 1 Aktobe
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
Before and after this match
Irtysh vs Aktobe markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aktobe | 45.2% | 2.21 | +0.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Irtysh | 27.8% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| Aktobe | 45.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.0% |
| No | 45.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aktobe win | 23.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 54.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | |
| 0-1 | 9.2% |
Irtysh vs Aktobe stats
Irtysh and Aktobe recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Irtysh and Aktobe going into this match
Irtysh record
- They have won 4 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 22 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aktobe record
- They have won 11 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Irtysh vs Aktobe head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Aktobe | Irtysh | Kazakhstan Premier League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Irtysh vs Aktobe odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.1%, draw 26.9%, away 45.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.31 | 3.72 | 2.03 |
| Betfair | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| Unibet | 2.43 | 3.15 | 2.48 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .