Lazio
vs
Parma Calcio 1913
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lazio
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.02.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Lazio is the favourite, not a value bet.
Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913 overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913
| Probability | Lazio | Draw | Parma Calcio 1913 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.0% | 25.8% | 17.2% |
| Market | 68.5% | 20.2% | 11.3% |
| Final | 65.6% | 21.6% | 12.8% |
| Edge | -2.9% | +1.4% | +1.5% |
Why Lazio
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.44, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.5% per unit staked (our 65.6% × 1.44 − 1).
Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913 match preview
Lazio enters the match against Parma Calcio 1913 with a strong recent form, having won four of their last six matches, while Parma has struggled, recording only one win in their last six outings. According to our model, Lazio has a 63% probability of winning, with the most likely scoreline being 2-1, which has a 10% likelihood. The expected goals for Lazio stand at 1.95, compared to Parma's 1.02, indicating a significant advantage for the home side.
Both teams are projected to score, with a 57% probability for over 2.5 goals in the match. Recent head-to-head encounters show a competitive history, with Lazio winning once, Parma winning once, and two matches ending in draws. This matchup could be crucial for both teams as they aim to improve their standings in Serie A.
Lazio and Parma Calcio 1913 team news
Lazio news
- A. Furlanetto — knee injury
- A. Gudmundsson — shoulder injury
- A. Marusic — muscle injury
- K. Taylor — thigh injury
- N. Rovella — calf injury
Parma Calcio 1913 news
- H. Nicolussi Caviglia — thigh injury
- L. Valenti — coach's decision
- N. Elphege — illness
- P. Almqvist — calf injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lazio and Parma Calcio 1913 expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.97
Lazio and Parma Calcio 1913 attack and defence ratings
Lazio
Parma Calcio 1913
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913 markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lazio | 65.6% | 1.52 | -2.9% | 1.44 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.2% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.0% | 2.32 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lazio | 65.6% |
| Draw | 21.6% | |
| Parma Calcio 1913 | 12.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% |
| No | 43.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 34.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lazio win | 35.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 43.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.8% |
Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913 stats
Lazio and Parma Calcio 1913 recent form
| Lazio |
WWWDWW |
| Parma Calcio 1913 |
LLWLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lazio and Parma Calcio 1913 season so far
Lazio record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Parma Calcio 1913 record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913 head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Lazio | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Lazio | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2025-04-28 | Lazio | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2024-12-01 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Lazio | Serie A | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913 odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 68.2%, draw 20.4%, away 11.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.44 | 4.89 | 8.55 |
| Bet365 | 1.36 | 4.75 | 9.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.36 | 4.60 | 8.50 |
| Betano | 1.40 | 4.50 | 8.75 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 4.60 | 9.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.41 | 4.80 | 8.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.40 | 4.75 | 8.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.41 | 4.77 | 8.34 |
| SBO | 1.34 | 4.15 | 7.24 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.40 | 7.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .