AC Milan
vs
Bologna
Garuda Lions Prediction: AC Milan
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 1.53.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — AC Milan is the favourite, not a value bet.
AC Milan vs Bologna overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AC Milan vs Bologna
| Probability | AC Milan | Draw | Bologna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.0% | 24.8% | 27.1% |
| Market | 58.9% | 23.8% | 17.4% |
| Final | 56.2% | 24.0% | 19.8% |
| Edge | -2.7% | +0.3% | +2.4% |
Why AC Milan
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 1.53.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.3% per unit staked (our 56.2% × 1.65 − 1).
AC Milan vs Bologna match preview
AC Milan is favored to win against Bologna with a probability of 58%, while a draw stands at 24% and Bologna at 18%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1, occurring at a 9% likelihood. The expectation for over 2.5 goals is high at 70%, and both teams scoring is also anticipated at 68%. AC Milan's expected goals are 2.25, compared to Bologna's 1.36.
In terms of recent form, AC Milan has recorded two wins, a draw, and two losses in their last six matches, while Bologna has struggled with one win, two draws, and three losses. Historically, in their last six encounters, AC Milan has secured four wins, with Bologna claiming one victory and one match ending in a draw. The confidence grade for this matchup is rated as A.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AC Milan and Bologna expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.57
AC Milan and Bologna attack and defence ratings
AC Milan
Bologna
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
AC Milan vs Bologna markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AC Milan | 56.2% | 1.78 | -2.7% | 1.65 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.2% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.9% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.2% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AC Milan | 56.2% |
| Draw | 24.0% | |
| Bologna | 19.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.9% |
| No | 30.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | AC Milan win | 29.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.1% | |
| Loss | 52.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 2-2 | 6.8% |
AC Milan vs Bologna stats
AC Milan and Bologna recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AC Milan and Bologna season so far
AC Milan record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bologna record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
AC Milan vs Bologna head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | Bologna | AC Milan | Serie A | 0-3 |
| 2025-09-14 | AC Milan | Bologna | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-05-09 | AC Milan | Bologna | Serie A | 3-1 |
| 2025-02-27 | Bologna | AC Milan | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2024-01-27 | AC Milan | Bologna | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2023-08-21 | Bologna | AC Milan | Serie A | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
AC Milan vs Bologna odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.8%, draw 23.8%, away 17.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.65 | 4.28 | 5.71 |
| Bet365 | 1.60 | 3.80 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.57 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.65 | 3.95 | 5.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.64 | 4.10 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.60 | 4.15 | 5.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.62 | 4.03 | 5.26 |
| SBO | 1.57 | 3.59 | 4.80 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .