KVC Westerlo
vs
SK Beveren
Garuda Lions Prediction: KVC Westerlo
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 1.69.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — KVC Westerlo is the favourite, not a value bet.
KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren overview
Garuda Lions analysis: KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren
| Probability | KVC Westerlo | Draw | SK Beveren |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.3% | 22.4% | 30.4% |
| Market | 44.8% | 24.9% | 30.3% |
| Final | 45.4% | 24.3% | 30.3% |
| Edge | +0.6% | -0.6% | +0.0% |
Why KVC Westerlo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 1.69.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.14, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.8% per unit staked (our 45.4% × 2.14 − 1).
KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren match preview
KVC Westerlo enters this match with a strong recent form, having won four of their last five games, alongside a draw. They are projected to score an expected 2.12 goals, contributing to a high probability of over 2.5 goals at 73% and both teams scoring at 73% as well. The model gives them a 47% chance of winning, with a predicted scoreline of 2-1 being the most likely outcome at 8%.
In contrast, SK Beveren's recent performance has been mixed, with two wins and three losses in their last five matches. The model forecasts them to score an expected 1.69 goals, reflecting a competitive but challenging matchup against Westerlo. They hold a 30% chance of winning, indicating a tough contest ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
KVC Westerlo and SK Beveren expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.81
KVC Westerlo and SK Beveren attack and defence ratings
KVC Westerlo
SK Beveren
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KVC Westerlo | 45.4% | 2.20 | +0.6% | 2.14 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.7% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KVC Westerlo | 45.4% |
| Draw | 24.3% | |
| SK Beveren | 30.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.6% |
| No | 27.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | KVC Westerlo win | 28.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.1% | |
| Loss | 52.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.7% |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | |
| 2-2 | 7.1% |
KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren stats
KVC Westerlo and SK Beveren recent form
| KVC Westerlo |
WWWWWD |
| SK Beveren |
WLLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
KVC Westerlo and SK Beveren season so far
KVC Westerlo record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
SK Beveren record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
KVC Westerlo vs SK Beveren odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.8%, draw 24.9%, away 30.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.14 | 3.84 | 3.12 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.75 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.10 | 3.75 | 3.25 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.90 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.13 | 3.80 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 2.09 | 3.74 | 3.04 |
| Pinnacle | 2.07 | 3.76 | 3.31 |
| SBO | 2.08 | 3.30 | 2.74 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .