Garuda Lions
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Jupiler Pro League · ·Matchday 9

Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen

Garuda Lions Prediction: KV Mechelen

1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.35.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Bet on KV Mechelen

Guldensporen Stadion, KortrijkReferee: B. Van Driessche

Kortrijk 35%
Draw 26%
KV Mechelen 39%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance KV Mechelen wins
39%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
95%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
64%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 2
9% of simulated outcomes

Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityKortrijkDrawKV Mechelen
Model26.4%24.4%49.3%
Market37.9%26.8%35.3%
Final35.0%26.2%38.8%
Edge-2.9%-0.6%+3.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why KV Mechelen

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.35.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices KV Mechelen below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 2.76, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +7.1% per unit staked (our 38.8% × 2.76 − 1).

Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen match preview

Kortrijk faces KV Mechelen in the Jupiler Pro League with a predicted scoreline of 1-2, which has a 9% likelihood according to our model. The probabilities show Kortrijk at 36% to win, a draw at 26%, and KV Mechelen slightly favored at 38%. The expected goals for Kortrijk is 1.35, while KV Mechelen is projected to score 1.90.

In terms of recent form, Kortrijk has struggled with a record of L-D-W-L-L-L, while KV Mechelen has shown some resilience with W-W-D-L-L-D. Our model indicates a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% probability that both teams will score, suggesting an engaging match ahead. The overall confidence grade for this fixture is C.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Kortrijk ↓ / KV Mechelen → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 7% 1 11% 9% 6% 2 7% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 63%
No goals 5%

Kortrijk and KV Mechelen expected goals

Kortrijk 1.35
KV Mechelen 1.90

Total expected goals: 3.25

Kortrijk and KV Mechelen attack and defence ratings

Kortrijk

Attack 0.68 -32%
Defence 1.32 +32%

KV Mechelen

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 1.34 +34%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Jupiler Pro League

Before and after this match

Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 KV Mechelen 38.8% 2.58 +3.5% 2.76
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 63.0% 1.59 — —
Both teams to score Yes 64.0% 1.56 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.8% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 50.7% 1.97 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Kortrijk35.0%
Draw26.2%
KV Mechelen38.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563.0%
Under 2.537.0%
Both teams to scoreYes64.0%
No36.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)61.2%
12 (either side)73.8%
X2 (draw or away)65.0%
Handicap -1KV Mechelen win28.4%
Push (exactly one goal)20.8%
Loss50.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.0%
1-29.4%
0-27.0%
Compare prices for this pick

Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen stats

Kortrijk and KV Mechelen recent form

newest first
Kortrijk LDWLLL
KV Mechelen WWDLLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Kortrijk and KV Mechelen season so far

league record

Kortrijk record

  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
  • They average 0.5 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 8 matches.

KV Mechelen record

  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
  • 62% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Kortrijk wins 1Draws 7KV Mechelen wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2024-11-29KortrijkKV MechelenJupiler Pro League3-1
2024-10-20KV MechelenKortrijkJupiler Pro League3-0
2024-02-24KV MechelenKortrijkJupiler Pro League3-0
2023-11-26KortrijkKV MechelenJupiler Pro League0-3
2023-01-21KV MechelenKortrijkJupiler Pro League3-2
2023-01-11KortrijkKV MechelenCup0-1
2022-09-10KortrijkKV MechelenJupiler Pro League1-4
2022-06-25KortrijkKV MechelenFriendlies Clubs3-1
2022-04-02KV MechelenKortrijkJupiler Pro League3-2
2021-08-27KortrijkKV MechelenJupiler Pro League2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 37.9%, draw 26.8%, away 35.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.48 3.55 2.76
Bet365 2.50 3.40 2.50
BetVictor 2.45 3.40 2.60
Betano 2.57 3.50 2.67
Betfair 2.40 3.50 2.55
Dafabet 2.55 3.50 2.70
Marathonbet 2.41 3.46 2.69
Pinnacle 2.55 3.50 2.69
SBO 2.38 3.06 2.48
William Hill 2.40 3.30 2.62
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.46 ▲ +0.05
X 3.48 ▲ +0.02
2 2.65 ▼ -0.06

10 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 2 KV Mechelen Predicted score 1 – 2 Low Bet Now
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