Gent
vs
Kortrijk
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gent
2 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 0.62.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Gent is the favourite, not a value bet.
Gent vs Kortrijk overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gent vs Kortrijk
| Probability | Gent | Draw | Kortrijk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71.6% | 19.8% | 8.6% |
| Market | 64.6% | 21.3% | 14.1% |
| Final | 66.3% | 20.9% | 12.7% |
| Edge | +1.8% | -0.4% | -1.4% |
Why Gent
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 0.62.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.48, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.8% per unit staked (our 66.3% × 1.48 − 1).
Gent vs Kortrijk match preview
Gent enters the match against Kortrijk with a strong probability of winning at 77%. Their recent form shows a sequence of three wins followed by a draw and a loss, indicating a solid performance. The expected goals for Gent stand at 2.44, while Kortrijk is projected to score just 0.62, highlighting a significant disparity in offensive capabilities.
Kortrijk's recent form has been less favorable, with two losses and a draw in their last five matches. The model suggests a most likely scoreline of 2-0 in favor of Gent, with a 14% probability. Additionally, there is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals, while both teams scoring is forecasted at 43%. This matchup presents a clear expectation of Gent's dominance.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gent and Kortrijk expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.75
Gent and Kortrijk attack and defence ratings
Gent
Kortrijk
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Standard Liege vs SK Beveren — team news & stats
- KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi — team news & stats
- OH Leuven v KV Mechelen — match page
- Antwerp v Lommel United — match page
- RAAL La Louvière vs Cercle Brugge
- Club Brugge KV vs Anderlecht
- Union St. Gilloise vs Genk — team news & stats
- St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem
Before and after this match
Gent vs Kortrijk markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gent | 66.3% | 1.51 | +1.8% | 1.48 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.3% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Gent win | 47.6% | 2.10 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gent | 66.3% |
| Draw | 20.9% | |
| Kortrijk | 12.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.5% |
| No | 58.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 33.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gent win | 47.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.0% | |
| Loss | 28.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 14.5% |
| 1-0 | 12.8% | |
| 3-0 | 10.3% |
Gent vs Kortrijk stats
Gent and Kortrijk recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gent and Kortrijk season so far
Gent record
- They have won 8 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Kortrijk record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 9 matches.
Gent vs Kortrijk head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Gent vs Kortrijk odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 64.6%, draw 21.3%, away 14.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.46 | 4.44 | 7.38 |
| Bet365 | 1.44 | 3.90 | 6.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.33 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.47 | 4.40 | 6.90 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.48 | 4.50 | 6.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.42 | 4.33 | 7.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.46 | 4.52 | 6.74 |
| SBO | 1.40 | 3.93 | 5.61 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.20 | 6.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .