KVC Westerlo
vs
Charleroi
Garuda Lions Prediction: Charleroi
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Charleroi is the favourite, not a value bet.
KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi overview
Garuda Lions analysis: KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi
| Probability | KVC Westerlo | Draw | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.0% | 21.4% | 44.6% |
| Market | 32.9% | 25.8% | 41.3% |
| Final | 33.2% | 24.7% | 42.1% |
| Edge | +0.3% | -1.1% | +0.8% |
Why Charleroi
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.3% per unit staked (our 42.1% × 2.32 − 1).
KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi match preview
KVC Westerlo faces Charleroi in a Jupiler Pro League match with probabilities indicating a competitive encounter. KVC Westerlo has a 33% chance of winning, while Charleroi is favored with a 42% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring with a 7% likelihood. Both teams are expected to contribute to the score, with a 77% chance of both teams scoring and an 79% probability of over 2.5 goals.
In terms of recent form, KVC Westerlo has recorded one loss and four wins in their last five matches, while Charleroi has won four of their last five, with one loss. The expected goals for KVC Westerlo stand at 1.95, compared to Charleroi's 2.22, suggesting a slight edge for the visitors in offensive potential.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
KVC Westerlo and Charleroi expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.17
KVC Westerlo and Charleroi attack and defence ratings
KVC Westerlo
Charleroi
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Charleroi | 42.1% | 2.38 | +0.8% | 2.32 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.6% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.3% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.4% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KVC Westerlo | 33.2% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| Charleroi | 42.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 21.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.1% |
| No | 22.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Charleroi win | 26.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.0% | |
| Loss | 55.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 7.4% |
| 1-1 | 7.4% | |
| 2-2 | 7.2% |
KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi stats
KVC Westerlo and Charleroi recent form
| KVC Westerlo |
LDWWWW |
| Charleroi |
WLWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
KVC Westerlo and Charleroi season so far
KVC Westerlo record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Charleroi record
- They have won 8 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 62% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Charleroi | KVC Westerlo | Jupiler Pro League | 0-1 |
| 2026-04-05 | KVC Westerlo | Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League | 2-0 |
| 2026-02-22 | KVC Westerlo | Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Charleroi | KVC Westerlo | Jupiler Pro League | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-09 | Charleroi | KVC Westerlo | Jupiler Pro League | 4-3 |
| 2025-04-11 | KVC Westerlo | Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League | 2-2 |
| 2025-02-22 | KVC Westerlo | Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League | 1-3 |
| 2024-11-09 | Charleroi | KVC Westerlo | Jupiler Pro League | 1-0 |
| 2024-03-01 | KVC Westerlo | Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League | 0-1 |
| 2023-11-25 | Charleroi | KVC Westerlo | Jupiler Pro League | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.9%, draw 25.8%, away 41.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.92 | 3.72 | 2.30 |
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| Betano | 2.95 | 3.60 | 2.30 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.85 | 3.70 | 2.32 |
| Marathonbet | 2.84 | 3.62 | 2.24 |
| Pinnacle | 2.92 | 3.78 | 2.27 |
| SBO | 2.66 | 3.30 | 2.12 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .