OH Leuven
vs
KV Mechelen
Garuda Lions Prediction: OH Leuven
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — OH Leuven is the favourite, not a value bet.
OH Leuven vs KV Mechelen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: OH Leuven vs KV Mechelen
| Probability | OH Leuven | Draw | KV Mechelen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.1% | 26.6% | 35.3% |
| Market | 40.9% | 27.0% | 32.1% |
| Final | 40.2% | 26.9% | 32.9% |
| Edge | -0.7% | -0.1% | +0.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.34, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.9% per unit staked (our 40.2% × 2.34 − 1).
OH Leuven vs KV Mechelen match preview
In the upcoming Jupiler Pro League match, OH Leuven hosts KV Mechelen with kickoff set for November 7, 2026. According to our model, OH Leuven has a 38% probability of winning, while KV Mechelen stands at 35%, with a 27% chance of a draw. The expected goals are 1.50 for OH Leuven and 1.41 for KV Mechelen, suggesting a closely contested match. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of OH Leuven, occurring at a 9% probability.
Recent form shows OH Leuven with a record of D-W-D-W-D-L, while KV Mechelen has performed slightly better with W-W-W-D-L-L. Both teams have yet to secure a win against each other in their last two encounters, resulting in 2 draws. Our model indicates a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
OH Leuven and KV Mechelen expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.99
OH Leuven and KV Mechelen attack and defence ratings
OH Leuven
KV Mechelen
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
OH Leuven vs KV Mechelen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | OH Leuven | 40.2% | 2.49 | -0.7% | 2.34 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.9% | 1.61 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | OH Leuven | 40.2% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| KV Mechelen | 32.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.2% |
| No | 38.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | OH Leuven win | 19.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.0% | |
| Loss | 61.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.4% |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | |
| 1-2 | 8.2% |
OH Leuven vs KV Mechelen stats
OH Leuven and KV Mechelen recent form
| OH Leuven |
WDWDWD |
| KV Mechelen |
WWWWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
OH Leuven and KV Mechelen season so far
OH Leuven record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
KV Mechelen record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
OH Leuven vs KV Mechelen head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | OH Leuven | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-25 | KV Mechelen | OH Leuven | Jupiler Pro League | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-03 | OH Leuven | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | 1-2 |
| 2025-04-13 | KV Mechelen | OH Leuven | Jupiler Pro League | 1-1 |
| 2025-01-31 | OH Leuven | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | 1-0 |
| 2024-10-05 | KV Mechelen | OH Leuven | Jupiler Pro League | 5-0 |
| 2024-04-27 | KV Mechelen | OH Leuven | Jupiler Pro League | 3-0 |
| 2024-03-30 | OH Leuven | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | 2-3 |
| 2024-03-17 | OH Leuven | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | 1-0 |
| 2023-09-23 | KV Mechelen | OH Leuven | Jupiler Pro League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
OH Leuven vs KV Mechelen odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.9%, draw 27.0%, away 32.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.34 | 3.55 | 2.95 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.30 | 2.88 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.40 | 2.88 |
| Betano | 2.32 | 3.55 | 2.95 |
| Betfair | 2.25 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.31 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.28 | 3.46 | 2.88 |
| Pinnacle | 2.27 | 3.60 | 3.04 |
| SBO | 2.18 | 3.10 | 2.71 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.30 | 2.88 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .