St. Truiden
vs
Zulte Waregem
Garuda Lions Prediction: St. Truiden
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 1.49.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — St. Truiden is the favourite, not a value bet.
St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem overview
Garuda Lions analysis: St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem
| Probability | St. Truiden | Draw | Zulte Waregem |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.7% | 23.1% | 27.2% |
| Market | 52.7% | 24.1% | 23.2% |
| Final | 51.9% | 23.9% | 24.2% |
| Edge | -0.7% | -0.3% | +1.0% |
Why St. Truiden
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 1.49.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.83, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.0% per unit staked (our 51.9% × 1.83 − 1).
St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem match preview
St. Truiden will host Zulte Waregem in the Jupiler Pro League, with a kickoff scheduled for November 8, 2026. According to our model, St. Truiden has a 53% probability of winning, while Zulte Waregem stands at 24%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of St. Truiden, with an expected goals tally of 2.13 for St. Truiden and 1.54 for Zulte Waregem.
In terms of recent form, St. Truiden has recorded two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Zulte Waregem has struggled with one win and five losses in the same timeframe. The head-to-head record shows St. Truiden winning both of the last two encounters against Zulte Waregem, indicating a favorable trend for the home side.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.54
St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem attack and defence ratings
St. Truiden
Zulte Waregem
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Truiden | 51.9% | 1.93 | -0.7% | 1.83 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.4% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Truiden | 51.9% |
| Draw | 23.9% | |
| Zulte Waregem | 24.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.4% |
| No | 31.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | St. Truiden win | 29.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 50.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | |
| 2-2 | 6.8% |
St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem stats
St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem recent form
| St. Truiden |
DLLWWW |
| Zulte Waregem |
LLWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem season so far
St. Truiden record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Zulte Waregem record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | St. Truiden | Zulte Waregem | Jupiler Pro League | 3-2 |
| 2025-08-23 | Zulte Waregem | St. Truiden | Jupiler Pro League | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.7%, draw 24.1%, away 23.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.82 | 3.98 | 4.07 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.80 | 3.90 | 4.20 |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 1.80 | 3.95 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.77 | 3.88 | 3.96 |
| Pinnacle | 1.83 | 3.97 | 4.01 |
| SBO | 1.73 | 3.43 | 3.60 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .