Union St. Gilloise
vs
Genk
Garuda Lions Prediction: Union St. Gilloise
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 0.89.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Union St. Gilloise is the favourite, not a value bet.
Union St. Gilloise vs Genk overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Union St. Gilloise vs Genk
| Probability | Union St. Gilloise | Draw | Genk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.1% | 22.4% | 14.6% |
| Market | 57.9% | 22.9% | 19.3% |
| Final | 59.2% | 22.7% | 18.1% |
| Edge | +1.3% | -0.1% | -1.2% |
Why Union St. Gilloise
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.4% per unit staked (our 59.2% × 1.65 − 1).
Union St. Gilloise vs Genk match preview
Union St. Gilloise enters the match against Genk with a strong recent form, recording four wins and a draw in their last six matches. Their expected goals stand at 2.15, indicating a potent attacking threat, while Genk's expected goals are significantly lower at 0.87. The probabilities suggest a favorable outcome for Union St. Gilloise, with a 60% chance of winning, while Genk has only a 17% chance.
In their last two encounters, Union St. Gilloise has secured two victories against Genk, highlighting their dominance in this matchup. The most likely scoreline projected by our model is 2-0 in favor of Union St. Gilloise, with a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance for both teams to score. The confidence grade for this forecast is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Union St. Gilloise and Genk expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.93
Union St. Gilloise and Genk attack and defence ratings
Union St. Gilloise
Genk
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Union St. Gilloise vs Genk markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union St. Gilloise | 59.2% | 1.69 | +1.3% | 1.65 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.9% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Union St. Gilloise win | 39.8% | 2.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union St. Gilloise | 59.2% |
| Draw | 22.7% | |
| Genk | 18.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% |
| No | 47.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Union St. Gilloise win | 39.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 36.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.1% |
| 1-1 | 10.7% | |
| 1-0 | 9.9% |
Union St. Gilloise vs Genk stats
Union St. Gilloise and Genk recent form
| Union St. Gilloise |
WWWWWD |
| Genk |
LWWWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Union St. Gilloise and Genk season so far
Union St. Gilloise record
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Genk record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Union St. Gilloise vs Genk head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Union St. Gilloise | Genk | Jupiler Pro League | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-21 | Genk | Union St. Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Union St. Gilloise vs Genk odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.9%, draw 22.9%, away 19.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.64 | 4.26 | 4.92 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.57 | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| Betano | 1.65 | 4.10 | 5.10 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.65 | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.60 | 4.15 | 4.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.61 | 4.26 | 5.07 |
| SBO | 1.54 | 3.71 | 4.38 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 4.00 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .