KV Mechelen
vs
Genk
Garuda Lions Prediction: Genk
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.34.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Genk is the favourite, not a value bet.
KV Mechelen vs Genk overview
Garuda Lions analysis: KV Mechelen vs Genk
| Probability | KV Mechelen | Draw | Genk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.2% | 23.3% | 52.4% |
| Market | 25.3% | 25.4% | 49.3% |
| Final | 25.1% | 24.9% | 50.1% |
| Edge | -0.3% | -0.5% | +0.8% |
Why Genk
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.34.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.94, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.8% per unit staked (our 50.1% × 1.94 − 1).
KV Mechelen vs Genk match preview
KV Mechelen faces Genk in the Jupiler Pro League, with the model predicting a 25% chance of a home victory for Mechelen, a 24% likelihood of a draw, and a 51% probability of an away win for Genk. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%. Both teams are expected to contribute to a high-scoring match, with a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% probability that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, KV Mechelen has recorded two wins, one draw, and three losses in their last six matches, while Genk has achieved three wins, two draws, and one loss in the same period. The expected goals for KV Mechelen stand at 1.36, while Genk is projected to score 1.99. The head-to-head record in their last two encounters shows one win for each team.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
KV Mechelen and Genk expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.37
KV Mechelen and Genk attack and defence ratings
KV Mechelen
Genk
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
KV Mechelen vs Genk markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Genk | 50.1% | 2.00 | +0.8% | 1.94 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.4% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.6% | 2.10 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KV Mechelen | 25.1% |
| Draw | 24.9% | |
| Genk | 50.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.0% |
| No | 35.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 49.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Genk win | 31.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 47.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.3% |
| 1-2 | 9.5% | |
| 0-2 | 7.1% |
KV Mechelen vs Genk stats
KV Mechelen and Genk recent form
| KV Mechelen |
WWDLLD |
| Genk |
WWWLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
KV Mechelen and Genk season so far
KV Mechelen record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
- 62% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Genk record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
KV Mechelen vs Genk head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | KV Mechelen | Genk | Jupiler Pro League | 2-3 |
| 2025-11-23 | Genk | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
KV Mechelen vs Genk odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.3%, draw 25.4%, away 49.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.74 | 3.78 | 1.94 |
| BetVictor | 3.70 | 3.60 | 1.85 |
| Betano | 3.80 | 3.75 | 1.93 |
| Marathonbet | 3.65 | 3.68 | 1.89 |
| Pinnacle | 3.80 | 3.78 | 1.91 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.50 | 1.91 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .