RAAL La Louvière
vs
Cercle Brugge
Garuda Lions Prediction: RAAL La Louvière
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.54 vs 1.89.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
RAAL La Louvière vs Cercle Brugge overview
Garuda Lions analysis: RAAL La Louvière vs Cercle Brugge
| Probability | RAAL La Louvière | Draw | Cercle Brugge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.9% | 19.9% | 28.2% |
| Market | 35.1% | 28.1% | 36.8% |
| Final | 39.3% | 26.0% | 34.7% |
| Edge | +4.2% | -2.0% | -2.1% |
Why RAAL La Louvière
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.54 vs 1.89.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices RAAL La Louvière below our published probability: +4.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.73, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +7.3% per unit staked (our 39.3% × 2.73 − 1).
RAAL La Louvière vs Cercle Brugge match preview
RAAL La Louvière hosts Cercle Brugge in a Jupiler Pro League clash with a favorable outlook for the home side. According to our model, La Louvière has a 57% probability of winning, while Cercle Brugge sits at 23%. The expected goals for La Louvière is 2.54 compared to 1.61 for Brugge, indicating a strong offensive showing may be anticipated. The most likely scoreline is projected at 2-1, occurring with an 8% likelihood.
Recent form shows La Louvière with two wins followed by a loss, while Cercle Brugge has struggled, recording one win in their last six matches. The model predicts a high-scoring affair, with an 78% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 74% probability that both teams will score. In their last four encounters, La Louvière has secured three wins against Brugge's one.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
RAAL La Louvière and Cercle Brugge expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.44
RAAL La Louvière and Cercle Brugge attack and defence ratings
RAAL La Louvière
Cercle Brugge
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Standard Liege vs SK Beveren — team news & stats
- KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi — team news & stats
- OH Leuven v KV Mechelen — match page
- Antwerp v Lommel United — match page
- Club Brugge KV vs Anderlecht
- Gent v Kortrijk — match page
- Union St. Gilloise vs Genk — team news & stats
- St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem
Before and after this match
RAAL La Louvière vs Cercle Brugge markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | RAAL La Louvière | 39.3% | 2.54 | +4.2% | 2.73 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.9% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.8% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.1% | 2.08 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | RAAL La Louvière | 39.3% |
| Draw | 26.0% | |
| Cercle Brugge | 34.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 18.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.8% |
| No | 21.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | RAAL La Louvière win | 33.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.5% | |
| Loss | 48.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 7.2% |
| 2-2 | 6.9% | |
| 1-1 | 6.3% |
RAAL La Louvière vs Cercle Brugge stats
RAAL La Louvière and Cercle Brugge recent form
| RAAL La Louvière |
LWWLLW |
| Cercle Brugge |
WLWLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
RAAL La Louvière and Cercle Brugge season so far
RAAL La Louvière record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Cercle Brugge record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
RAAL La Louvière vs Cercle Brugge head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | RAAL La Louvière | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | 4-1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Cercle Brugge | RAAL La Louvière | Jupiler Pro League | 3-0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Cercle Brugge | RAAL La Louvière | Jupiler Pro League | 1-3 |
| 2025-11-02 | RAAL La Louvière | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
RAAL La Louvière vs Cercle Brugge odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.1%, draw 28.1%, away 36.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.73 | 3.38 | 2.60 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.45 |
| BetVictor | 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| Betfair | 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.50 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.66 | 3.30 | 2.53 |
| Pinnacle | 2.72 | 3.32 | 2.65 |
| SBO | 2.48 | 3.04 | 2.39 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.25 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .