Antwerp
vs
Lommel United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Antwerp
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Antwerp is the favourite, not a value bet.
Antwerp vs Lommel United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Antwerp vs Lommel United
| Probability | Antwerp | Draw | Lommel United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.1% | 26.4% | 41.5% |
| Market | 50.1% | 24.7% | 25.1% |
| Final | 45.6% | 25.1% | 29.2% |
| Edge | -4.5% | +0.4% | +4.1% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.8% per unit staked (our 45.6% × 1.91 − 1).
Antwerp vs Lommel United match preview
Antwerp faces Lommel United in the Jupiler Pro League with probabilities indicating a 46% chance of an Antwerp victory, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 29% chance for Lommel United. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Antwerp, with an 8% probability. The model also suggests a 58% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance that both teams will score.
In terms of expected goals, Antwerp is projected to score 1.39, while Lommel United is slightly ahead with 1.60 expected goals. Recent form shows Antwerp struggling with three losses in their last six matches, while Lommel United has been more consistent, recording two wins and a draw in their last three outings. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Antwerp and Lommel United expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.99
Antwerp and Lommel United attack and defence ratings
Antwerp
Lommel United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Antwerp vs Lommel United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Antwerp | 45.6% | 2.19 | -4.5% | 1.91 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.9% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Antwerp | 45.6% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Lommel United | 29.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.1% |
| No | 38.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Antwerp win | 15.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.1% | |
| Loss | 67.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | |
| 2-1 | 7.8% |
Antwerp vs Lommel United stats
Antwerp and Lommel United recent form
| Antwerp |
LWWLLL |
| Lommel United |
WDLWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Antwerp and Lommel United season so far
Antwerp record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lommel United record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
Antwerp vs Lommel United head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-02-26 | Antwerp | Lommel United | Challenger Pro League | 1-0 |
| 2016-12-16 | Lommel United | Antwerp | Challenger Pro League | 2-4 |
| 2016-10-23 | Lommel United | Antwerp | Challenger Pro League | 1-1 |
| 2016-08-19 | Antwerp | Lommel United | Challenger Pro League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Antwerp vs Lommel United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.1%, draw 24.7%, away 25.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.89 | 3.88 | 3.84 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| BetVictor | 1.83 | 3.75 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 1.87 | 3.95 | 3.85 |
| Betfair | 1.83 | 3.75 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.91 | 3.90 | 3.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.84 | 3.78 | 3.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.90 | 3.83 | 3.83 |
| SBO | 1.86 | 3.35 | 3.19 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.60 | 3.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .