TSV Hartberg
vs
Austria Lustenau
Garuda Lions Prediction: TSV Hartberg
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau overview
Garuda Lions analysis: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau
| Probability | TSV Hartberg | Draw | Austria Lustenau |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.7% | 22.4% | 35.9% |
| Market | 44.4% | 26.8% | 28.8% |
| Final | 43.7% | 25.7% | 30.6% |
| Edge | -2.6% | -4.4% | +7.1% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau match preview
TSV Hartberg hosts Austria Lustenau in an intriguing Austria Bundesliga clash. The model gives TSV Hartberg a 41% chance of winning, while Austria Lustenau has a 33% probability, and a draw stands at 26%. The expected goals indicate a competitive match, with Hartberg projected to score 2.04 and Lustenau 1.88. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Hartberg, with a probability of 8%.
Both teams show a strong tendency for high-scoring games, as reflected by the 75% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 74% chance that both teams will score. Recent form shows Hartberg with two draws and three wins in their last six matches, while Lustenau has three wins, two losses, and one draw in the same timeframe. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.92
TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau attack and defence ratings
TSV Hartberg
Austria Lustenau
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | TSV Hartberg | 43.7% | 2.29 | -2.6% | 2.22 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.3% | 1.72 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | TSV Hartberg | 43.7% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| Austria Lustenau | 30.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.5% |
| No | 25.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | TSV Hartberg win | 23.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.9% | |
| Loss | 58.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.4% |
| 2-1 | 7.7% | |
| 2-2 | 7.3% |
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau stats
TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau recent form
| TSV Hartberg |
DDWWWL |
| Austria Lustenau |
WLWLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau season so far
TSV Hartberg record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Austria Lustenau record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.4%, draw 26.8%, away 28.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.11 | 3.48 | 3.24 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| Betano | 2.22 | 3.40 | 3.05 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.14 | 3.55 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.09 | 3.48 | 3.24 |
| Pinnacle | 2.13 | 3.66 | 3.26 |
| SBO | 2.11 | 3.09 | 3.00 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
44 snapshots recorded, from .