Austria Bundesliga
·
Full time
·Matchday 7
Red Bull Salzburg
vs
Sturm Graz
3 – 0 Full time
| 52′ | Edmund BaidooAboubacar Sidiki Camara | ||
| 52′ | Damir RedzicSota Kitano | ||
| 52′ | Karim KonateYorbe Vertessen | ||
| 58′ | Axel KayomboOumar Diakité | ||
| 66′ | Abubakr BarryUmut Deger Tohumcu | ||
| 66′ | Valmir MatoshiFilip Rozga Kucharczyk | ||
| 66′ | Simon SeidlOtar Kiteishvili | ||
| 72′ | Nikolas Veratschnig | ||
| 72′ | Jurgen Heil | ||
| 76′ | Jurgen Heil | ||
| 77′ | Kevin Boma | ||
| 79′ | Paul Koller | ||
| 83′ | Aboubacar Sidiki Camara | ||
| 84′ | Arjan MalićPetar Petrović | ||
| 84′ | Luca WeinhandlGizo Mamageishvili | ||
| 86′ | Bartosz MazurekFrans Kratzig |
Red Bull Salzburg
59%
Draw
22%
Sturm Graz
19%
Match stats
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 55 | Possession % | 45 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Offsides | 3 |
| 2 | Saves | 4 |
| 357 | Accurate passes | 252 |
Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz
| Probability | Red Bull Salzburg | Draw | Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.2% | 26.5% | 18.3% |
| Market | 59.8% | 21.1% | 19.1% |
| Final | 58.6% | 22.4% | 18.9% |
| Edge | -4.5% | +5.4% | -0.8% |
Why Red Bull Salzburg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 0.87.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
91%
2+ goals
73%
3+ goals
47%
No goals
9%
Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz expected goals
Red Bull Salzburg
1.68
Sturm Graz
0.87
Total expected goals: 2.54
Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz attack and defence ratings
Red Bull Salzburg
Attack
1.56 +56%
Defence
0.62 -38%
Sturm Graz
Attack
1.11 +11%
Defence
0.71 -29%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz: result vs prediction
Red Bull Salzburg 3 – 0 Sturm Graz
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 58.6% | 1.71 | -4.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.1% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.7% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 58.6% |
| Draw | 22.4% | |
| Sturm Graz | 18.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.5% |
| No | 51.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Red Bull Salzburg win | 31.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.2% | |
| Loss | 44.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 1-0 | 11.9% | |
| 2-0 | 11.0% |
Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz stats
Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz recent form
| Red Bull Salzburg |
WDWWWW |
| Sturm Graz |
DWWLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz going into this match
Red Bull Salzburg record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Sturm Graz record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
1Red Bull Salzburg wins
4Draws
5Sturm Graz wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Red Bull Salzburg | Sturm Graz | Austria Bundesliga | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Sturm Graz | Red Bull Salzburg | Austria Bundesliga | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Sturm Graz | Red Bull Salzburg | Austria Bundesliga | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Red Bull Salzburg | Sturm Graz | Austria Bundesliga | 0-2 |
| 2025-05-09 | Sturm Graz | Red Bull Salzburg | Bundesliga | 4-2 |
| 2025-04-13 | Red Bull Salzburg | Sturm Graz | Bundesliga | 1-2 |
| 2025-03-02 | Red Bull Salzburg | Sturm Graz | Bundesliga | 3-1 |
| 2024-10-06 | Sturm Graz | Red Bull Salzburg | Bundesliga | 5-0 |
| 2024-04-28 | Red Bull Salzburg | Sturm Graz | Bundesliga | 2-2 |
| 2024-04-04 | Red Bull Salzburg | Sturm Graz | Cup | 3-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 59.8%, draw 21.1%, away 19.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.57 | 4.45 | 4.82 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.55 | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.57 | 4.35 | 4.85 |
| Betfair | 1.53 | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.55 | 4.45 | 4.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.60 | 4.70 | 5.06 |
| SBO | 1.53 | 4.30 | 4.60 |
| William Hill | 1.57 | 4.20 | 4.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.57 ▼ -0.09
X
4.45 ▲ +0.35
2
4.90 ▲ +0.51
19 snapshots recorded, from .