Bayern Munich
vs
Arsenal
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bayern Munich
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bayern Munich vs Arsenal
| Probability | Bayern Munich | Draw | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66.2% | 18.6% | 15.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 66.2% | 18.6% | 15.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Bayern Munich
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.56 vs 1.19.
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal match preview
Bayern Munich enters this UEFA Champions League match against Arsenal with a strong probability of winning at 66%. Their recent form shows a solid streak with four wins in their last six matches, while Arsenal has also been performing well with five consecutive victories, despite a recent loss. The expected goals for Bayern Munich stand at 2.56, compared to Arsenal's 1.19, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Bayern Munich, with a 9% likelihood. Additionally, there is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored, and a 65% probability that both teams will find the net. The confidence grade for this match is rated as A, suggesting a strong forecast for Bayern Munich's performance.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bayern Munich and Arsenal expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.75
Bayern Munich and Arsenal attack and defence ratings
Bayern Munich
Arsenal
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bayern Munich | 66.2% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.9% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Bayern Munich win | 45.7% | 2.19 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bayern Munich | 66.2% |
| Draw | 18.6% | |
| Arsenal | 15.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.0% |
| No | 35.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 33.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bayern Munich win | 45.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 33.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.2% |
| 1-1 | 7.9% | |
| 3-1 | 7.8% |
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal stats
Bayern Munich and Arsenal recent form
| Bayern Munich |
WWWDWW |
| Arsenal |
LWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-26 | Arsenal | Bayern Munich | UEFA Champions League | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.