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UEFA Champions League · Full time ·League Stage - 3

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal

2 – 2 Full time

10′Bukayo SakaEberechi Eze
13′Kai Havertz
25′Eberechi Eze
35′Alphonso Davies
39′Ezri Konsa
45′Kim Min-JaeJonathan Tah
61′Harry Kane
68′Ismael SaibariLuis Díaz
68′Serge GnabryLennart Karl
68′Kai HavertzViktor Gyökeres
69′Bruno GuimarãesMyles Lewis-Skelly
82′Declan Rice
85′Martin OdegaardMikel Merino
85′Alphonso DaviesNathaniel Brown
90′Luis DíazBara Sapoko Ndiaye

Allianz Arena, MunichReferee: Davide Massa

Bayern Munich 48%
Draw 24%
Arsenal 28%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 14
5 Shots on target 5
42 Possession % 58
3 Corners 5
15 Fouls 6
2 Offsides 1
3 Saves 3
372 Accurate passes 440

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Bayern Munich vs Arsenal

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBayern MunichDrawArsenal
Model62.1%19.5%18.4%
Market42.8%25.5%31.6%
Final47.6%24.0%28.3%
Edge+4.8%-1.5%-3.3%

Confidence: High · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Bayern Munich

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.50 vs 1.34.
  • The market prices Bayern Munich below our published probability: +4.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Bayern Munich ↓ / Arsenal → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 5% 8% 5% 2 7% 9% 6% 3 6% 7% 5% 4+ 6% 9% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 90%
3+ goals 74%
No goals 3%

Bayern Munich and Arsenal expected goals

Bayern Munich 2.50
Arsenal 1.34

Total expected goals: 3.85

Bayern Munich and Arsenal attack and defence ratings

Bayern Munich

Attack 1.91 +91%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Arsenal

Attack 1.18 +18%
Defence 0.68 -32%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal: result vs prediction

Bayern Munich 2 – 2 Arsenal

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

UEFA Champions League

Before and after this match

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Bayern Munich 47.6% 2.10 +4.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 74.0% 1.35 — —
Both teams to score Yes 68.7% 1.46 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.0% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Bayern Munich win 41.7% 2.40 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Bayern Munich47.6%
Draw24.0%
Arsenal28.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574.0%
Under 2.526.0%
Both teams to scoreYes68.7%
No31.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.7%
12 (either side)76.0%
X2 (draw or away)52.4%
Handicap -1Bayern Munich win41.7%
Push (exactly one goal)20.3%
Loss38.0%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.0%
1-17.9%
3-17.5%

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal stats

Bayern Munich and Arsenal recent form

newest first
Bayern Munich WDDWWW
Arsenal WWWLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Bayern Munich wins 3Draws 3Arsenal wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-11-26ArsenalBayern MunichUEFA Champions League3-1
2024-04-17Bayern MunichArsenalUEFA Champions League1-0
2024-04-09ArsenalBayern MunichUEFA Champions League2-2
2019-07-18ArsenalBayern MunichInternational Champions Cup2-1
2017-07-19Bayern MunichArsenalInternational Champions Cup1-1
2017-03-07ArsenalBayern MunichUEFA Champions League1-5
2017-02-15Bayern MunichArsenalUEFA Champions League5-1
2015-11-04Bayern MunichArsenalUEFA Champions League5-1
2015-10-20ArsenalBayern MunichUEFA Champions League2-0
2014-03-11Bayern MunichArsenalUEFA Champions League1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 42.8%, draw 25.5%, away 31.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.30 3.90 3.09
Bet365 2.25 3.70 3.00
BetVictor 2.20 3.75 3.00
Betano 2.27 3.90 3.05
Betfair 2.25 3.60 3.10
Dafabet 2.10 3.80 3.30
Marathonbet 2.26 3.84 3.04
Pinnacle 2.26 3.81 3.10
SBO 2.21 3.59 2.87
William Hill 2.20 3.60 2.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.25 ▲ +0.10
X 3.77 ▲ +0.10
2 3.04 ▼ -0.04

12 snapshots recorded, from .