UEFA Europa League · Full time ·League Stage - 3

Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace

2 – 2 Full time

15′Wilfred Ndidi
39′Fabio MirettiSalih Özcan
45′Yeremy Pino
45′Wilfred Ndidi
51′Yeremy Pino
55′Jean-Philippe Mateta
61′Dwight McNeilIsmaila Sarr
61′Jean-Philippe MatetaJörgen Strand Larsen
64′Kartal Kayra YılmazJunior Olaitan
64′Taylan BulutAmir Murillo
66′Umit Akdag
72′Yeremy PinoDario Osorio
73′Junior Olaitan
75′Oh Hyeon-gyuDušan Vlahović
75′Ilhan FakiliVáclav Černý
77′Umit Akdag
85′Jörgen Strand LarsenEddie Nketiah

Tüpraş Stadium, IstanbulReferee: Danny Makkelie

Beşiktaş 49%
Draw 23%
Crystal Palace 28%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

5 Shots 8
2 Shots on target 3
59 Possession % 41
1 Corners 3
11 Fouls 16
0 Offsides 2
1 Saves 0
428 Accurate passes 261

Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBeşiktaşDrawCrystal Palace
Model68.7%16.7%14.6%
Market42.7%25.2%32.1%
Final49.2%23.0%27.7%
Edge+6.5%-2.1%-4.4%

Confidence: Medium · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Beşiktaş

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.88 vs 1.35.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Beşiktaş below our published probability: +6.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Beşiktaş ↓ / Crystal Palace → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 2 6% 8% 3 6% 8% 4+ 8% 11% 8%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 93%
3+ goals 79%
No goals 2%

Beşiktaş and Crystal Palace expected goals

Beşiktaş 2.88
Crystal Palace 1.35

Total expected goals: 4.23

Beşiktaş and Crystal Palace attack and defence ratings

Beşiktaş

Attack 1.39 +39%
Defence 0.93 -7%

Crystal Palace

Attack 1.24 +24%
Defence 1.34 +34%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace: result vs prediction

Beşiktaş 2 – 2 Crystal Palace

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

UEFA Europa League

Before and after this match

Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Beşiktaş 49.2% 2.03 +6.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 79.6% 1.26 — —
Both teams to score Yes 70.5% 1.42 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 77.0% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Beşiktaş win 49.2% 2.03 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Beşiktaş49.2%
Draw23.0%
Crystal Palace27.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.579.6%
Under 2.520.4%
Both teams to scoreYes70.5%
No29.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)72.3%
12 (either side)77.0%
X2 (draw or away)50.8%
Handicap -1Beşiktaş win49.2%
Push (exactly one goal)19.2%
Loss31.7%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.1%
3-17.8%
1-16.2%

Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace stats

Beşiktaş and Crystal Palace recent form

newest first
Beşiktaş LWWLWW
Crystal Palace LLWDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Beşiktaş and Crystal Palace going into this match

league record before kick-off

Beşiktaş record

  • They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • 62% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 42.7%, draw 25.2%, away 32.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.24 3.84 3.08
Bet365 2.25 3.70 3.00
BetVictor 2.15 3.80 2.90
Betano 2.25 3.80 2.92
Betfair 2.20 3.70 3.00
Dafabet 2.30 3.80 2.90
Marathonbet 2.21 3.78 3.04
Pinnacle 2.27 3.78 3.04
SBO 2.06 3.28 2.78
William Hill 2.20 3.50 2.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.23 ▲ +0.08
X 3.78 ▲ +0.06
2 2.96 ▼ -0.14

12 snapshots recorded, from .