Beşiktaş
vs
Başakşehir
Garuda Lions Prediction: Beşiktaş
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 1.35.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Beşiktaş is the favourite, not a value bet.
Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir
| Probability | Beşiktaş | Draw | Başakşehir |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.9% | 22.7% | 23.4% |
| Market | 68.5% | 18.3% | 13.3% |
| Final | 64.8% | 19.4% | 15.8% |
| Edge | -3.6% | +1.1% | +2.5% |
Why Beşiktaş
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 1.35.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.38, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.5% per unit staked (our 64.8% × 1.38 − 1).
Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir match preview
Beşiktaş is set to face Başakşehir in the Süper Lig, with the model indicating a strong likelihood of a Beşiktaş victory at 63%. The most probable scoreline is projected to be 2-1, with an expected goals tally of 2.33 for Beşiktaş and 1.14 for Başakşehir. Recent form favors Beşiktaş, who have won their last six matches, while Başakşehir has recorded two wins, two draws, and two losses in their last six outings.
The model also suggests a high chance of over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams scoring at 62%. In their last two encounters, Beşiktaş has secured two wins against Başakşehir, who have yet to claim a victory in this matchup. The confidence grade for this forecast stands at C.
Beşiktaş and Başakşehir team news
Beşiktaş news
- F. Miretti — injury
- M. Rashica — muscle injury
- O. Kokcu — foot injury
Başakşehir news
- C. Operi — inactive
- J. Opoku — inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Beşiktaş and Başakşehir expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.45
Beşiktaş and Başakşehir attack and defence ratings
Beşiktaş
Başakşehir
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Beşiktaş | 64.8% | 1.54 | -3.6% | 1.38 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.0% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.9% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.2% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.1% | 2.17 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Beşiktaş | 64.8% |
| Draw | 19.4% | |
| Başakşehir | 15.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.9% |
| No | 34.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 35.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Beşiktaş win | 33.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 46.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.0% |
Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir stats
Beşiktaş and Başakşehir recent form
| Beşiktaş |
DLWWLW |
| Başakşehir |
WDWLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Beşiktaş and Başakşehir season so far
Beşiktaş record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Başakşehir record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Başakşehir | Beşiktaş | Süper Lig | 2-3 |
| 2025-09-13 | Beşiktaş | Başakşehir | Süper Lig | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-12 | Beşiktaş | Başakşehir | Süper Lig | 0-2 |
| 2024-11-10 | Başakşehir | Beşiktaş | Süper Lig | 0-0 |
| 2024-04-04 | Başakşehir | Beşiktaş | Süper Lig | 1-1 |
| 2023-11-12 | Beşiktaş | Başakşehir | Süper Lig | 1-0 |
| 2023-03-12 | Başakşehir | Beşiktaş | Süper Lig | 0-2 |
| 2022-09-12 | Beşiktaş | Başakşehir | Süper Lig | 0-1 |
| 2022-03-07 | Beşiktaş | Başakşehir | Süper Lig | 2-2 |
| 2021-10-15 | Başakşehir | Beşiktaş | Süper Lig | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 68.4%, draw 18.4%, away 13.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.37 | 5.54 | 8.15 |
| Bet365 | 1.28 | 5.50 | 9.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.35 | 4.80 | 8.25 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.38 | 5.60 | 7.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.34 | 5.10 | 7.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.37 | 5.35 | 7.02 |
| SBO | 1.34 | 4.84 | 5.80 |
| William Hill | 1.36 | 4.80 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .