Alanyaspor
vs
Kocaelispor
Garuda Lions Prediction: Alanyaspor
1 – 0 Predicted score · 17% model probability
Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor
| Probability | Alanyaspor | Draw | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.6% | 33.8% | 21.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 44.6% | 33.8% | 21.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Alanyaspor
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.14 vs 0.71.
Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor match preview
Alanyaspor faces Kocaelispor in the Süper Lig with Alanyaspor holding a 44% probability of winning according to our model. The expected goals for Alanyaspor stand at 1.13, while Kocaelispor is projected to score 0.71. Recent form shows Alanyaspor with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, whereas Kocaelispor has won four of their last five, indicating a competitive matchup.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Alanyaspor, occurring with a 17% probability. Both teams have a 36% chance of scoring, and there is a 28% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match. In their last two encounters, each team has secured one victory, highlighting a balanced rivalry.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.85
Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor attack and defence ratings
Alanyaspor
Kocaelispor
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alanyaspor | 44.6% | 2.24 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.4% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.4% | 1.81 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alanyaspor | 44.6% |
| Draw | 33.8% | |
| Kocaelispor | 21.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 71.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.8% |
| No | 64.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alanyaspor win | 19.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.0% | |
| Loss | 55.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 17.0% |
| 1-0 | 16.7% | |
| 1-1 | 14.0% |
Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor stats
Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor recent form
| Alanyaspor |
DWDWLW |
| Kocaelispor |
LWLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor season so far
Alanyaspor record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kocaelispor record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Alanyaspor | Kocaelispor | Süper Lig | 5-0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Kocaelispor | Alanyaspor | Süper Lig | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.