Kocaelispor
vs
Göztepe
Garuda Lions Prediction: Göztepe
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Kocaelispor vs Göztepe overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kocaelispor vs Göztepe
| Probability | Kocaelispor | Draw | Göztepe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.9% | 28.1% | 34.0% |
| Market | 32.3% | 27.2% | 40.5% |
| Final | 33.7% | 27.5% | 38.8% |
| Edge | +5.6% | +0.9% | -6.5% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.42, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Kocaelispor vs Göztepe match preview
Kocaelispor faces Göztepe in an upcoming Süper Lig match, with kickoff scheduled for October 18, 2026. According to our model, Kocaelispor has a 35% probability of winning, while Göztepe stands at 37%, and there is a 28% chance of a draw. The expected goals for Kocaelispor is 1.40, slightly higher than Göztepe's 1.32. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring with an 8% probability.
In terms of recent form, Kocaelispor has shown resilience with three wins in their last five matches, while Göztepe has struggled, recording only one win in their last six outings. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 51%, and both teams scoring is predicted at 56%. Historically, Kocaelispor has not secured a win against Göztepe in their last two encounters, with two draws recorded.
Kocaelispor and Göztepe team news
Kocaelispor news
- A. Dijksteel — muscle injury
- A. Jovanovic — knee injury
- B. Petkovic — hamstring injury
- M. Haidara — muscle injury
- M. Maglica — injury
- T. Zoukrou — muscle injury
Göztepe news
- F. Bayir — inactive
- I. Sabra — ankle injury
- L. Gugeshashvili — inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kocaelispor and Göztepe expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.72
Kocaelispor and Göztepe attack and defence ratings
Kocaelispor
Göztepe
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kocaelispor vs Göztepe markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Göztepe | 38.8% | 2.58 | -6.5% | 2.42 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.0% | 1.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kocaelispor | 33.7% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Göztepe | 38.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.4% |
| No | 43.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Göztepe win | 15.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.4% | |
| Loss | 66.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | |
| 1-0 | 8.0% |
Kocaelispor vs Göztepe stats
Kocaelispor and Göztepe recent form
| Kocaelispor |
LWLWWW |
| Göztepe |
WDDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kocaelispor and Göztepe season so far
Kocaelispor record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Göztepe record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
Kocaelispor vs Göztepe head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Kocaelispor | Göztepe | Süper Lig | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-23 | Göztepe | Kocaelispor | Süper Lig | 0-0 |
| 2024-04-03 | Kocaelispor | Göztepe | 1. Lig | 3-2 |
| 2023-11-04 | Göztepe | Kocaelispor | 1. Lig | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Kocaelispor vs Göztepe odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.3%, draw 27.8%, away 39.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.98 | 3.58 | 2.40 |
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.88 | 3.30 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 2.92 | 3.25 | 2.37 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.90 | 3.45 | 2.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.86 | 3.44 | 2.30 |
| Pinnacle | 2.99 | 3.43 | 2.42 |
| SBO | 2.78 | 3.12 | 2.22 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.25 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .