Beşiktaş
vs
Kocaelispor
Garuda Lions Prediction: Beşiktaş
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor
| Probability | Beşiktaş | Draw | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.7% | 26.5% | 14.9% |
| Market | 73.7% | 17.0% | 9.3% |
| Final | 69.9% | 19.4% | 10.7% |
| Edge | -15.0% | +9.4% | +5.6% |
Why Beşiktaş
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.71.
Best available price on the pick: 1.29, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor match preview
Beşiktaş faces Kocaelispor in the Süper Lig on October 11, 2026, with Beşiktaş holding a 59% probability of winning, while Kocaelispor has a 15% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Beşiktaş, occurring at a rate of 14%. The expected goals for Beşiktaş stand at 1.65, compared to Kocaelispor's 0.72, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Beşiktaş has recorded a mixed performance with two wins and one loss in their last six matches, while Kocaelispor has also shown inconsistency with three wins and two losses in the same timeframe. Historically, Beşiktaş has dominated their last two encounters, winning both without conceding. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting the model-only probabilities.
Beşiktaş and Kocaelispor team news
Beşiktaş news
- M. Rashica — injury
- O. Kokcu — toe injury
Kocaelispor news
- A. Jovanovic — knee injury
- B. Petkovic — hamstring injury
- M. Haidara — muscle injury
- R. Rivas — thigh injury
- T. Gulliksen — hamstring injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Beşiktaş and Kocaelispor expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.36
Beşiktaş and Kocaelispor attack and defence ratings
Beşiktaş
Kocaelispor
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Beşiktaş | 69.9% | 1.43 | -15.0% | 1.29 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.3% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.3% | 2.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Beşiktaş | 69.9% |
| Draw | 19.4% | |
| Kocaelispor | 10.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.4% |
| No | 57.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 30.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Beşiktaş win | 33.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.5% | |
| Loss | 41.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.4% |
| 2-0 | 12.8% | |
| 1-1 | 12.2% |
Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor stats
Beşiktaş and Kocaelispor recent form
| Beşiktaş |
LWWWWL |
| Kocaelispor |
WLWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Beşiktaş and Kocaelispor season so far
Beşiktaş record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
Kocaelispor record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Kocaelispor | Beşiktaş | Süper Lig | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-29 | Beşiktaş | Kocaelispor | Süper Lig | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 73.7%, draw 17.0%, away 9.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.27 | 6.21 | 11.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.27 | 4.75 | 11.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.25 | 5.25 | 10.00 |
| Betano | 1.29 | 5.30 | 9.25 |
| Betfair | 1.25 | 5.50 | 11.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.29 | 5.60 | 10.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.25 | 5.60 | 10.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.29 | 5.41 | 9.90 |
| SBO | 1.24 | 5.13 | 8.30 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.50 | 10.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .