Alanyaspor
vs
Erzurumspor FK
Garuda Lions Prediction: Alanyaspor
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK
| Probability | Alanyaspor | Draw | Erzurumspor FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.7% | 28.1% | 18.3% |
| Market | 47.9% | 28.3% | 23.8% |
| Final | 49.3% | 28.2% | 22.4% |
| Edge | +5.8% | -0.2% | -5.5% |
Why Alanyaspor
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.80.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Alanyaspor below the model: +5.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK match preview
Alanyaspor faces Erzurumspor FK in their upcoming Süper Lig match on October 10, 2026. Alanyaspor holds a 54% probability of winning, while Erzurumspor FK has an 18% chance, with a draw at 28%. The expected goals for Alanyaspor stand at 1.54, compared to Erzurumspor FK's 0.80. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 14%.
In terms of recent form, Alanyaspor has recorded a sequence of W-D-W-L-W-D, indicating a mixed performance, while Erzurumspor FK's recent results show W-L-W-D-L-L. The probabilities suggest a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance for both teams to score, reflecting a competitive matchup. The confidence grade for this analysis is C.
Alanyaspor and Erzurumspor FK team news
Alanyaspor news
- Maestro — thigh injury
Erzurumspor FK news
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alanyaspor and Erzurumspor FK expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.34
Alanyaspor and Erzurumspor FK attack and defence ratings
Alanyaspor
Erzurumspor FK
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alanyaspor | 49.3% | 2.03 | +5.8% | 2.05 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.6% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.3% | 2.16 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alanyaspor | 49.3% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| Erzurumspor FK | 22.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.5% |
| No | 55.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alanyaspor win | 28.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.9% | |
| Loss | 46.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.6% |
| 1-1 | 13.1% | |
| 2-0 | 11.4% |
Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK stats
Alanyaspor and Erzurumspor FK recent form
| Alanyaspor |
WDWLWD |
| Erzurumspor FK |
WLWDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alanyaspor and Erzurumspor FK season so far
Alanyaspor record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
Erzurumspor FK record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-05-11 | Alanyaspor | Erzurumspor FK | Süper Lig | 2-3 |
| 2021-01-21 | Erzurumspor FK | Alanyaspor | Süper Lig | 1-1 |
| 2021-01-14 | Alanyaspor | Erzurumspor FK | Türkiye Kupası | 4-1 |
| 2019-03-10 | Alanyaspor | Erzurumspor FK | Süper Lig | 2-1 |
| 2018-10-06 | Erzurumspor FK | Alanyaspor | Süper Lig | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.9%, draw 28.3%, away 23.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.05 | 3.44 | 3.94 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.25 | 3.80 |
| BetVictor | 1.90 | 3.20 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.93 | 3.30 | 4.05 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.30 | 4.33 |
| Dafabet | 2.00 | 3.35 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.97 | 3.30 | 3.78 |
| Pinnacle | 1.95 | 3.36 | 4.12 |
| SBO | 1.91 | 3.04 | 3.61 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.10 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .