Galatasaray
vs
Kasımpaşa
3 – 1 Full time
Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa
| Probability | Galatasaray | Draw | Kasımpaşa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.3% | 26.3% | 32.4% |
| Market | 74.4% | 15.7% | 9.9% |
| Final | 66.1% | 18.3% | 15.5% |
| Edge | -33.1% | +10.6% | +22.4% |
Why Galatasaray
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Galatasaray and Kasımpaşa expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.01
Galatasaray and Kasımpaşa attack and defence ratings
Galatasaray
Kasımpaşa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa: result vs prediction
Galatasaray 3 – 1 Kasımpaşa
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Galatasaray | 66.1% | 1.51 | -33.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.5% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Galatasaray | 66.1% |
| Draw | 18.3% | |
| Kasımpaşa | 15.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.5% |
| No | 38.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 33.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Galatasaray win | 21.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 58.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 1-2 | 7.8% |
Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa stats
Galatasaray and Kasımpaşa recent form
| Galatasaray |
LWLWWW |
| Kasımpaşa |
DWDDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Galatasaray and Kasımpaşa going into this match
Galatasaray record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kasımpaşa record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 59% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Kasımpaşa | Galatasaray | Süper Lig | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-21 | Galatasaray | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig | 3-0 |
| 2025-03-02 | Kasımpaşa | Galatasaray | Süper Lig | 3-3 |
| 2024-09-28 | Galatasaray | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig | 3-3 |
| 2024-03-17 | Kasımpaşa | Galatasaray | Süper Lig | 3-4 |
| 2023-11-03 | Galatasaray | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig | 2-1 |
| 2023-03-11 | Galatasaray | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig | 1-0 |
| 2022-09-11 | Kasımpaşa | Galatasaray | Süper Lig | 2-3 |
| 2022-07-24 | Galatasaray | Kasımpaşa | Friendlies Clubs | 2-1 |
| 2022-01-20 | Galatasaray | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 74.4%, draw 15.7%, away 9.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.27 | 6.52 | 10.70 |
| Bet365 | 1.28 | 5.25 | 9.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.25 | 5.75 | 10.00 |
| Betano | 1.33 | 6.10 | 9.25 |
| Betfair | 1.25 | 5.50 | 9.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.30 | 6.00 | 9.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.23 | 6.15 | 10.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.26 | 6.39 | 10.78 |
| SBO | 1.28 | 5.32 | 7.62 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 6.00 | 9.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .